Netherlands · Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

PSV Eindhoven 76.6% Draw 14.3% Groningen 8.7%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 96%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is PSV Eindhoven win at 76.6%.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to PSV Eindhoven: 14 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

PSV Eindhoven win

76.6%

1X2 model probability

Draw

14.3%

1X2 model probability

Groningen win

8.7%

1X2 model probability

PSV Eindhoven

W D W W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 21:8 Scored/game 3.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Groningen

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

PSV Eindhoven 5wins ·0 draws ·Groningen 0wins

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 GroningenFeb 8, 2026

PSV Eindhoven 4-2 GroningenAug 23, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 GroningenApr 5, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 5-0 GroningenNov 23, 2024

PSV Eindhoven 6-0 GroningenFeb 11, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

PSV Eindhoven win76.6%

Draw14.3%

Groningen win8.7%

Over 1.5 goals91.3%

Over 2.5 goals98.4%

Over 3.5 goals56.7%

Both teams to score95.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.4%

Away Team to Score

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.3%

Goal in Both Halves93.3%

Home or Away (12)83.8%

Home or Draw (1X)75.7%

Draw No Bet - Home74.6%

Home Win62.5%

Draw or Away (X2)34.5%

Draw No Bet - Away25.4%

Away Win21.3%

Draw13.2%

Exactly 1 Goal0.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals93.7%

Over 3.5 Goals88.1%

4+ Goals88.1%

Over 4.5 Goals78.5%

Over 5.5 Goals65.3%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Total Goals Even48.5%

Under 5.5 Goals34.7%

Under 4.5 Goals21.5%

2-4 Goals17.7%

3-4 Goals15.2%

Under 3.5 Goals11.9%

1-3 Goals8.8%

2-3 Goals8.0%

Under 2.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 3 Goals5.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

1-2 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 2 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score90.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)88.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)11.1%

Home Clean Sheet6.8%

Home Win to Nil6.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.5%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 0.590.3%

Home Over 1.589.3%

Home Over 2.576.1%

Home 3+ Goals76.1%

Away Over 1.572.2%

Away Over 2.548.2%

Away 3+ Goals48.2%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Away Exactly 118.0%

Home Exactly 213.1%

Away Exactly 06.8%

Home Exactly 16.2%

Home Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.1%

Home to win by 3+32.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.7%

Away to win by 19.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.6%

Away to win by 3+5.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.7%

Home & Over 2.561.2%

Home & BTTS55.9%

Away & Over 2.520.7%

Away & BTTS19.9%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

Home & No BTTS6.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.4%

HT Over 1.581.4%

HT Both Teams Score59.3%

HT Home Win53.6%

2nd Half More Goals52.6%

HT/FT Home/Home46.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win24.0%

HT Draw22.4%

HT Under 1.518.6%

Equal Goals Each Half15.0%

HT/FT Away/Away13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.7%

HT/FT Away/Home6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.3%

HT Under 0.54.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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