UEFA Champions League

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Sep 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

PSV Eindhoven 88.2% Draw 7.4% Shakhtar Donetsk 4.4%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

PSV Eindhoven

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 23:7 Scored/game 3.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Shakhtar Donetsk

L L

Form 0-0-2 Goals 2:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

PSV Eindhoven win88.2%

Draw7.4%

Shakhtar Donetsk win4.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals91.9%

Over 3.5 goals81.1%

Both teams to score69.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.0%

Home or Draw (1X)91.5%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.588.2%

Goal in Both Halves88.2%

Home Win84.9%

Draw or Away (X2)11.1%

Draw6.6%

Draw No Bet - Away5.0%

Away Win4.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals88.2%

Over 3.5 Goals77.9%

4+ Goals77.9%

Over 4.5 Goals63.1%

Under 5.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals46.3%

Under 4.5 Goals36.9%

2-4 Goals30.6%

3-4 Goals25.1%

Under 3.5 Goals22.1%

1-3 Goals17.8%

2-3 Goals15.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.8%

Exactly 3 Goals10.4%

1-2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score66.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.0%

Home Clean Sheet29.2%

Home Win to Nil28.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.566.8%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Away Over 1.532.0%

Away Exactly 029.2%

Away Exactly 220.7%

Away Over 2.511.4%

Away 3+ Goals11.4%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)58.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home58.0%

Home to win by 3+58.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away55.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home41.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away37.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)25.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home25.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away22.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 111.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 13.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.1%

Away to win by 21.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.579.9%

BTTS & Over 2.564.2%

Home & BTTS56.0%

Home & No BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.0%

Draw & BTTS6.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.5%

Away & Over 2.53.9%

Away & BTTS3.7%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Home Win72.6%

HT Over 1.572.5%

HT/FT Home/Home70.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT Both Teams Score36.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.5%

HT Draw18.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win8.7%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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