Netherlands · Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam

Kick-off 19:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

84% confidence

PSV Eindhoven 83.9% Draw 10.1% Sparta Rotterdam 5.0%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

94%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to PSV Eindhoven: 14 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

PSV Eindhoven

D W W W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 19:7 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Sparta Rotterdam

D L D W L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

PSV Eindhoven 5wins ·0 draws ·Sparta Rotterdam 0wins

PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Sparta RotterdamApr 11, 2026

PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Sparta RotterdamAug 9, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Sparta RotterdamMay 18, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta RotterdamOct 5, 2024

PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Sparta RotterdamMay 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

PSV Eindhoven win83.9%

Draw10.1%

Sparta Rotterdam win5.0%

Over 1.5 goals92.7%

Over 2.5 goals93.9%

Over 3.5 goals62.9%

Both teams to score78.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.5%

Home or Draw (1X)90.7%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Both Halves Over 0.586.9%

Goal in Both Halves86.9%

Home Win82.1%

Draw or Away (X2)15.3%

Draw8.6%

Draw No Bet - Away7.5%

Away Win6.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals88.3%

Over 3.5 Goals76.8%

4+ Goals76.8%

Over 4.5 Goals61.1%

Under 5.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even48.7%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Over 5.5 Goals43.9%

Under 4.5 Goals38.9%

2-4 Goals33.6%

3-4 Goals27.3%

Under 3.5 Goals23.2%

1-3 Goals20.2%

2-3 Goals17.9%

Under 2.5 Goals11.7%

Exactly 3 Goals11.5%

1-2 Goals8.6%

Exactly 2 Goals6.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score71.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.0%

Home Clean Sheet26.2%

Home Win to Nil25.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.6%

Away Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.589.3%

Home Over 2.575.7%

Home 3+ Goals75.7%

Away Over 0.571.2%

Away Over 1.536.8%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Away Exactly 026.2%

Away Exactly 222.6%

Away Over 2.514.2%

Away 3+ Goals14.2%

Home Exactly 213.6%

Home Exactly 16.5%

Home Exactly 01.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home68.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)51.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home51.7%

Home to win by 3+51.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away45.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)34.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home34.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away28.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away15.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.7%

BTTS & Over 2.567.7%

Home & BTTS56.3%

Home & No BTTS25.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.6%

Draw & BTTS8.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

Away & Over 2.55.8%

Away & BTTS5.5%

Home & Under 2.55.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Away & No BTTS1.2%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.4%

HT Over 1.570.4%

HT Home Win68.1%

HT/FT Home/Home64.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score37.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.6%

HT Draw20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT Under 0.58.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Away3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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