Netherlands · Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Full time · 7:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89% confidence

PSV Eindhoven 89.1% Draw 3.2% Willem II 1.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 62%

✓ Pick was correct (7:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to PSV Eindhoven: 7 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: PSV Eindhoven 2 wins, 1 draws, Willem II 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

PSV Eindhoven

D W L L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Willem II

L L L L L D

Form 0-1-5 Goals 6:19 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 3.17

Head to head · last 4

PSV Eindhoven 2wins ·1 draws ·Willem II 1wins

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem IIFeb 8, 2025

PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Willem IISep 28, 2024

PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Willem IIMay 1, 2022

PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Willem IISep 25, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

PSV Eindhoven win89.1%

Draw3.2%

Willem II win1.0%

Over 1.5 goals91.1%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals74.7%

Both teams to score62.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.3%

Home or Draw (1X)91.9%

Home or Away (12)89.0%

Home Win82.1%

Both Halves Over 0.581.3%

Goal in Both Halves81.3%

Draw or Away (X2)16.7%

Draw9.8%

Draw No Bet - Away7.7%

Away Win6.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals83.6%

Under 5.5 Goals68.1%

Over 3.5 Goals67.8%

4+ Goals67.8%

Under 4.5 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals49.3%

2-4 Goals44.3%

3-4 Goals34.2%

Under 3.5 Goals32.2%

Over 5.5 Goals31.9%

1-3 Goals30.1%

2-3 Goals25.8%

Under 2.5 Goals16.4%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.3%

Exactly 2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score65.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.7%

Home Clean Sheet33.7%

Home Win to Nil32.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.5%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 0.565.1%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Exactly 033.7%

Away Over 1.528.8%

Away Exactly 219.5%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Away Over 2.59.3%

Away 3+ Goals9.3%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away50.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.9%

Home to win by 3+47.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.8%

BTTS & Over 2.559.8%

Home & BTTS49.3%

Home & No BTTS32.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

Home & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & BTTS8.9%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Away & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS5.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.5%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.9%

HT Home Win65.8%

HT Over 1.562.4%

HT/FT Home/Home62.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Under 1.537.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score30.8%

HT Draw23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.7%

HT Under 0.512.1%

HT Away Win10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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