Mexico · Liga MX

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Puebla 49.0% Draw 26.7% Guadalajara Chivas 24.3%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 58%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 78%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.2%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

78%

Market agrees with this pick

Puebla

L W

Form 1-0-1 Goals 2:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Guadalajara Chivas

W L L D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Puebla win49.0%

Draw26.7%

Guadalajara Chivas win24.3%

Over 1.5 goals79.9%

Over 2.5 goals55.2%

Over 3.5 goals32.9%

Both teams to score58.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.2%

Home or Draw (1X)74.2%

Draw No Bet - Home66.2%

Both Halves Over 0.558.0%

Goal in Both Halves58.0%

Home Win50.4%

Draw or Away (X2)49.6%

Draw No Bet - Away33.8%

Away Win25.8%

Draw23.8%

Exactly 1 Goal16.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.7%

Under 4.5 Goals83.3%

Over 1.5 Goals78.4%

Under 3.5 Goals67.1%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals44.8%

1-2 Goals39.2%

3-4 Goals38.5%

Over 3.5 Goals32.9%

4+ Goals32.9%

Exactly 2 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals16.7%

Over 5.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.2%

Away Team to Score68.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.4%

Home Clean Sheet31.1%

Home Win to Nil25.6%

Away Clean Sheet17.8%

Away Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.2%

Away Over 0.568.9%

Home Over 1.551.4%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Away Over 1.532.5%

Away Exactly 031.1%

Home Exactly 130.7%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Home Over 2.524.9%

Home 3+ Goals24.9%

Away Exactly 221.2%

Home Exactly 017.8%

Away Over 2.511.3%

Away 3+ Goals11.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.0%

Home to win by 123.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.0%

Home to win by 3+12.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.0%

Away to win by 27.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.2%

Away to win by 3+3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.6%

Home & Over 2.532.6%

Home & No BTTS25.6%

Home & BTTS24.9%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Home & Under 2.517.8%

Draw & Under 2.516.7%

Away & Over 2.515.6%

Away & BTTS13.5%

Away & No BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.8%

HT Under 1.562.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Draw39.5%

HT Home Win38.0%

HT Over 1.537.4%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Home/Home31.2%

HT Under 0.527.2%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT Away Win22.5%

HT Both Teams Score22.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.3%

HT/FT Away/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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