Mexico · Liga MX

Puebla vs Leon

Full time · 0:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Puebla 45.5% Draw 26.0% Leon 28.5%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 63%

✓ Pick was correct (0:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leon: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.5%

Exact-score model probability

Puebla

D D L W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Leon

W D W L D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Puebla win45.5%

Draw26.0%

Leon win28.5%

Over 1.5 goals83.3%

Over 2.5 goals60.5%

Over 3.5 goals38.2%

Both teams to score63.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.8%

Home or Draw (1X)70.1%

Both Halves Over 0.562.0%

Goal in Both Halves62.0%

Draw No Bet - Home61.1%

Draw or Away (X2)53.1%

Home Win46.9%

Draw No Bet - Away38.9%

Away Win29.8%

Draw23.2%

Exactly 1 Goal13.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Under 5.5 Goals90.3%

Over 1.5 Goals81.9%

Under 4.5 Goals79.3%

Under 3.5 Goals61.8%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals60.5%

1-3 Goals57.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals39.5%

Over 3.5 Goals38.2%

4+ Goals38.2%

1-2 Goals35.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals20.7%

Under 1.5 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals4.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.9%

Away Team to Score74.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.3%

Home Clean Sheet25.5%

Home Win to Nil21.1%

Away Clean Sheet17.1%

Away Win to Nil12.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.9%

Away Over 0.574.5%

Home Over 1.552.6%

Away Over 1.539.6%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Exactly 130.2%

Home Exactly 226.7%

Home Over 2.526.0%

Home 3+ Goals26.0%

Away Exactly 025.5%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Home Exactly 017.1%

Away Over 2.515.8%

Away 3+ Goals15.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.6%

Home to win by 121.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.7%

Away to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 214.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.1%

Home to win by 3+11.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 28.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.6%

Away to win by 3+4.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.551.2%

Home & Over 2.532.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.9%

Home & BTTS25.8%

Home & No BTTS21.1%

Away & Over 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Under 2.514.9%

Home & Under 2.514.5%

Away & No BTTS12.8%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

Away & Under 2.510.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.5%

HT Under 1.558.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.1%

HT Draw37.9%

HT Home Win36.4%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT/FT Home/Home28.9%

HT Away Win25.7%

HT Both Teams Score25.2%

HT Under 0.524.5%

Equal Goals Each Half23.4%

HT/FT Away/Away17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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