Mexico · Liga MX

Puebla vs Monterrey

● LIVE 49' · 0:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Puebla 51.0% Draw 23.0% Monterrey 26.0%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Monterrey: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Puebla

D D D D L W

Form 1-4-1 Goals 3:3 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Monterrey

W D L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Puebla win51.0%

Draw23.0%

Monterrey win26.0%

Over 1.5 goals88.9%

Over 2.5 goals70.4%

Over 3.5 goals49.3%

Both teams to score69.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

88.1%

Home Over 0.5

88.1%

Over 1.5 Goals

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.1%

Home or Draw (1X)72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.569.7%

Goal in Both Halves69.7%

Draw No Bet - Home65.8%

Home Win52.1%

Draw or Away (X2)47.9%

Draw No Bet - Away34.2%

Away Win27.1%

Draw20.8%

Exactly 1 Goal9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals87.8%

Under 5.5 Goals83.9%

Over 2.5 Goals70.4%

Under 4.5 Goals70.0%

2-4 Goals57.7%

Under 3.5 Goals50.8%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals49.2%

4+ Goals49.2%

1-3 Goals48.1%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.5%

Over 4.5 Goals30.0%

Under 2.5 Goals29.6%

1-2 Goals27.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.1%

Exactly 2 Goals17.4%

Over 5.5 Goals16.1%

Under 1.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.1%

Away Team to Score77.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.5%

Home Clean Sheet22.2%

Home Win to Nil19.6%

Away Clean Sheet11.8%

Away Win to Nil9.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.1%

Away Over 0.577.7%

Home Over 1.562.9%

Away Over 1.544.3%

Home Over 2.535.9%

Home 3+ Goals35.9%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.3%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 022.2%

Away Over 2.519.2%

Away 3+ Goals19.2%

Home Exactly 011.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.5%

Home to win by 3+15.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 27.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.1%

Home & Over 2.540.5%

Home & BTTS32.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.2%

Away & Over 2.520.1%

Home & No BTTS19.6%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Away & BTTS17.9%

Home & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS9.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.5%

HT Under 1.551.3%

HT Over 1.548.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Home Win40.9%

HT Draw34.3%

HT/FT Home/Home33.3%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.4%

HT Away Win24.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.5%

HT/FT Away/Away15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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