Mexico · Liga MX

Puebla vs Toluca

● LIVE 45' · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Puebla 29.5% Draw 26.1% Toluca 44.4%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 10 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.5%

Exact-score model probability

Puebla

W L W W D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Toluca

W W W D W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:6 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Puebla win29.5%

Draw26.1%

Toluca win44.4%

Over 1.5 goals83.4%

Over 2.5 goals60.7%

Over 3.5 goals38.4%

Both teams to score63.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.7%

Draw or Away (X2)69.1%

Both Halves Over 0.562.2%

Goal in Both Halves62.2%

Draw No Bet - Away59.7%

Home or Draw (1X)54.2%

Away Win45.8%

Draw No Bet - Home40.3%

Home Win30.9%

Draw23.3%

Exactly 1 Goal13.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Under 5.5 Goals90.2%

Over 1.5 Goals82.1%

Under 4.5 Goals79.1%

Under 3.5 Goals61.6%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals60.7%

1-3 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.7%

3-4 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals39.3%

Over 3.5 Goals38.4%

4+ Goals38.4%

1-2 Goals34.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals20.9%

Under 1.5 Goals17.9%

Over 5.5 Goals9.8%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals4.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.5%

Home Team to Score75.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.9%

Away Clean Sheet24.8%

Away Win to Nil20.4%

Home Clean Sheet17.5%

Home Win to Nil13.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.5%

Home Over 0.575.2%

Away Over 1.552.0%

Home Over 1.540.7%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 130.5%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.525.4%

Away 3+ Goals25.4%

Home Exactly 024.8%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Away Exactly 017.5%

Home Over 2.516.6%

Home 3+ Goals16.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away69.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)45.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 121.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.8%

Away to win by 213.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.6%

Away to win by 3+10.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.9%

Home to win by 28.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.551.5%

Away & Over 2.531.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.7%

Away & BTTS25.4%

Home & Over 2.520.6%

Away & No BTTS20.4%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Under 2.514.9%

Away & Under 2.514.1%

Home & No BTTS13.2%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.6%

HT Under 1.558.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.541.2%

HT Draw37.9%

HT Away Win35.7%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT/FT Away/Away28.1%

HT Home Win26.4%

HT Both Teams Score25.4%

HT Under 0.524.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.4%

HT/FT Home/Home18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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