UEFA Europa Conference League

Qarabag vs Twente

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

95% confidence

Qarabag 94.6% Draw 4.5% Twente 0.9%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 31%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

95%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

Strongest 1X2 probability

Recent form leans to Qarabag: 11 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Qarabag

W W L D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 6:1 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.17

Twente

L W D L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

Qarabag 1wins ·0 draws ·Twente 0wins

Qarabag 1-0 TwenteAug 20, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Qarabag win94.6%

Draw4.5%

Twente win0.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.3%

Over 2.5 goals80.6%

Over 3.5 goals62.6%

Both teams to score30.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.0%

Home Over 1.5

88.7%

HT Over 0.5

86.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home98.9%

Home or Draw (1X)96.8%

Home or Away (12)93.9%

Home Win92.9%

Both Halves Over 0.578.2%

Goal in Both Halves78.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Draw or Away (X2)5.0%

Draw4.0%

Away Win1.1%

Draw No Bet - Away1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Over 1.5 Goals91.0%

Over 2.5 Goals78.9%

Under 5.5 Goals74.7%

Over 3.5 Goals61.3%

4+ Goals61.3%

Under 4.5 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Even49.2%

2-4 Goals49.0%

Total Goals Odd48.7%

Over 4.5 Goals42.0%

Under 3.5 Goals38.7%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.3%

2-3 Goals29.8%

Over 5.5 Goals25.3%

Under 2.5 Goals21.1%

1-2 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals12.1%

Under 1.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)70.4%

Home Clean Sheet67.7%

Home Win to Nil66.5%

Away Team to Score30.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)29.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.8%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.588.7%

Home Over 2.574.0%

Home 3+ Goals74.0%

Away Exactly 067.7%

Away Over 0.530.1%

Away Exactly 124.9%

Home Exactly 214.7%

Home Exactly 17.4%

Away Over 1.55.2%

Away Exactly 24.6%

Home Exactly 01.8%

Away Over 2.50.6%

Away 3+ Goals0.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)92.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home83.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)66.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home66.8%

Home to win by 3+66.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)50.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away50.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home47.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away31.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home29.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw18.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away14.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.9%

Home to win by 19.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away5.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 20.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.6%

Home & No BTTS66.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.551.2%

BTTS & Over 2.527.7%

Home & BTTS26.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.1%

Home & Under 2.515.3%

Draw & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & BTTS2.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Draw & Over 2.50.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Away & Over 2.50.5%

Away & BTTS0.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Home Win78.5%

HT/FT Home/Home77.7%

HT Over 1.558.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT Draw18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT Both Teams Score12.7%

HT Away Win2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.5%

HT/FT Away/Away0.5%

HT/FT Home/Away0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions