England · Championship

QPR vs Derby

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Oct 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

QPR 58.9% Draw 25.0% Derby 16.1%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to QPR: 7 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

QPR

D D D D L W

Form 1-4-1 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Derby

D D D L L W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

QPR win58.9%

Draw25.0%

Derby win16.1%

Over 1.5 goals77.4%

Over 2.5 goals51.9%

Over 3.5 goals29.7%

Both teams to score51.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

85.5%

Home Team to Score

84.5%

Home Over 0.5

84.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.5%

Home or Away (12)77.8%

Draw No Bet - Home77.6%

Home Win60.3%

Both Halves Over 0.555.4%

Goal in Both Halves55.4%

Draw or Away (X2)39.7%

Draw No Bet - Away22.4%

Draw22.2%

Exactly 1 Goal17.6%

Away Win17.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.9%

Over 0.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals85.5%

Over 1.5 Goals76.0%

Under 3.5 Goals70.3%

1-3 Goals63.9%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.1%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.7%

3-4 Goals37.4%

Over 3.5 Goals29.7%

4+ Goals29.7%

Exactly 2 Goals24.2%

Under 1.5 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.5%

Under 0.5 Goals6.4%

Exactly 0 Goals6.4%

Over 5.5 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.5%

Away Team to Score58.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.7%

Home Clean Sheet41.1%

Home Win to Nil34.8%

Away Clean Sheet15.5%

Away Win to Nil9.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.5%

Away Over 0.558.8%

Home Over 1.555.6%

Away Exactly 041.1%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 128.9%

Home Over 2.528.6%

Home 3+ Goals28.6%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Over 1.522.3%

Away Exactly 216.2%

Home Exactly 015.5%

Away Over 2.56.1%

Away 3+ Goals6.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.9%

Home to win by 124.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 218.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.8%

Home to win by 3+16.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.8%

Away to win by 111.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.2%

Away to win by 24.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.539.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.6%

Home & Over 2.537.3%

Home & No BTTS34.8%

Home & BTTS25.6%

Home & Under 2.523.0%

Draw & Under 2.517.0%

Draw & BTTS15.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

BTTS & Under 2.510.6%

Away & Over 2.59.3%

Away & No BTTS9.1%

Away & BTTS8.3%

Away & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.0%

HT Under 1.564.9%

HT Home Win43.8%

2nd Half More Goals43.6%

HT Draw39.6%

HT/FT Home/Home38.5%

HT Over 1.535.1%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.0%

Equal Goals Each Half25.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.1%

HT Both Teams Score18.7%

HT Away Win16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.6%

HT/FT Away/Away9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions