England · Championship

QPR vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

QPR 48.2% Draw 26.8% Middlesbrough 25.0%

Over 2.5 - 55% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 11 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.2%

Exact-score model probability

QPR

W W D W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Middlesbrough

D W W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

QPR win48.2%

Draw26.8%

Middlesbrough win25.0%

Over 1.5 goals79.9%

Over 2.5 goals55.3%

Over 3.5 goals33.0%

Both teams to score58.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.1%

Home or Draw (1X)73.5%

Draw No Bet - Home65.2%

Both Halves Over 0.558.0%

Goal in Both Halves58.0%

Draw or Away (X2)50.4%

Home Win49.6%

Draw No Bet - Away34.8%

Away Win26.5%

Draw23.9%

Exactly 1 Goal16.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.5%

Under 5.5 Goals92.6%

Under 4.5 Goals83.2%

Over 1.5 Goals78.5%

Under 3.5 Goals67.0%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.5%

Under 2.5 Goals44.7%

1-2 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 3.5 Goals33.0%

4+ Goals33.0%

Exactly 2 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.5%

Over 4.5 Goals16.8%

Over 5.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals5.5%

Exactly 0 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.9%

Away Team to Score69.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.1%

Home Clean Sheet30.5%

Home Win to Nil25.0%

Away Clean Sheet18.1%

Away Win to Nil12.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.9%

Away Over 0.569.5%

Home Over 1.551.0%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Over 1.533.3%

Home Exactly 130.9%

Away Exactly 030.5%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Home Over 2.524.5%

Home 3+ Goals24.5%

Away Exactly 221.5%

Home Exactly 018.1%

Away Over 2.511.8%

Away 3+ Goals11.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.9%

Home to win by 122.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.6%

Home to win by 3+11.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.5%

Home & Over 2.532.1%

Home & No BTTS25.0%

Home & BTTS24.6%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Home & Under 2.517.5%

Draw & Under 2.516.7%

Away & Over 2.516.1%

Away & BTTS13.9%

Away & No BTTS12.6%

BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

Away & Under 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.8%

HT Under 1.562.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Draw39.5%

HT Home Win37.5%

HT Over 1.537.4%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Home/Home30.6%

HT Under 0.527.2%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT Away Win23.0%

HT Both Teams Score22.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT/FT Away/Away15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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