Spain · La Liga

Racing Santander vs Alaves

Kick-off 13:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Racing Santander 44.7% Draw 26.0% Alaves 29.3%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Alaves: 4 points versus 13 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

Racing Santander

L W L D

Form 1-1-2 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.75 Conceded/game 2

Alaves

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:5 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Racing Santander win44.7%

Draw26.0%

Alaves win29.3%

Over 1.5 goals73.4%

Over 2.5 goals48.3%

Over 3.5 goals26.5%

Both teams to score76.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Draw or Away (X2)76.0%

Draw No Bet - Away70.9%

Away Win58.0%

Home or Draw (1X)41.9%

Draw No Bet - Home29.1%

Home Win23.8%

Draw18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.3%

Over 3.5 Goals62.7%

4+ Goals62.7%

Under 4.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals43.4%

Under 3.5 Goals37.3%

3-4 Goals37.1%

1-3 Goals35.8%

2-3 Goals30.1%

Over 5.5 Goals26.7%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

1-2 Goals18.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.8%

Exactly 2 Goals12.3%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.7%

Home Team to Score81.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.4%

Away Clean Sheet18.4%

Away Win to Nil17.1%

Home Clean Sheet7.1%

Home Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.7%

Home Over 0.581.4%

Away Over 1.573.9%

Home Over 1.550.3%

Away Over 2.549.0%

Away 3+ Goals49.0%

Home Exactly 131.1%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Over 2.524.0%

Home 3+ Goals24.0%

Away Exactly 118.8%

Home Exactly 018.4%

Away Exactly 07.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home78.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away21.7%

Away to win by 3+21.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.7%

Away to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 216.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.8%

Home to win by 26.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.4%

Home to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.7%

Away & Over 2.549.9%

Away & BTTS40.9%

Home & Over 2.519.7%

Home & BTTS18.0%

Away & No BTTS17.1%

Draw & BTTS16.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Home & No BTTS5.8%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.8%

HT Over 1.558.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Away Win46.0%

HT Under 1.542.0%

HT/FT Away/Away38.6%

HT Both Teams Score37.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.3%

HT Home Win23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT Under 0.514.2%

HT/FT Home/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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