UEFA Europa Conference League

Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split

Kick-off 18:00 · Thu, Aug 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

Raków Częstochowa 81.5% Draw 10.9% HNK Hajduk Split 7.6%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Raków Częstochowa: 11 points versus 10 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Raków Częstochowa

D W D W W

Form 3-2-0 Goals 10:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.6

HNK Hajduk Split

D W W L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

Raków Częstochowa 0wins ·1 draws ·HNK Hajduk Split 0wins

Raków Częstochowa 2-2 HNK Hajduk SplitAug 20, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Raków Częstochowa win81.5%

Draw10.9%

HNK Hajduk Split win7.6%

Over 1.5 goals96.6%

Over 2.5 goals88.0%

Over 3.5 goals74.2%

Both teams to score70.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)90.5%

Home or Away (12)88.4%

Both Halves Over 0.584.3%

Goal in Both Halves84.3%

Home Win80.6%

Draw or Away (X2)17.8%

Draw9.9%

Draw No Bet - Away8.9%

Away Win7.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals86.6%

Over 3.5 Goals73.0%

4+ Goals73.0%

Under 5.5 Goals61.8%

Over 4.5 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 4.5 Goals44.3%

2-4 Goals38.9%

Over 5.5 Goals38.2%

3-4 Goals30.8%

Under 3.5 Goals27.0%

1-3 Goals24.8%

2-3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals13.6%

Under 2.5 Goals13.4%

1-2 Goals11.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score70.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.9%

Home Clean Sheet27.7%

Home Win to Nil27.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.7%

Home Over 2.571.7%

Home 3+ Goals71.7%

Away Over 0.570.7%

Away Over 1.535.6%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Away Exactly 027.7%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 216.1%

Away Over 2.513.4%

Away 3+ Goals13.4%

Home Exactly 18.4%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)90.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away81.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away50.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.5%

Home to win by 3+47.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 115.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 15.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.573.7%

BTTS & Over 2.566.1%

Home & BTTS53.5%

Home & No BTTS27.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS9.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Away & Over 2.56.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Away & BTTS6.3%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & No BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.8%

HT Over 1.566.6%

HT Home Win65.3%

HT/FT Home/Home61.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Both Teams Score35.7%

HT Under 1.533.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT Away Win11.9%

HT Under 0.510.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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