UEFA Europa Conference League

Rapid Vienna vs Paide

Kick-off 17:00 · Wed, Aug 12

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

95% confidence

Rapid Vienna 80.0% Draw 10.0% Paide 10.0%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 50%

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate high

85%

Home Win

Form gap significant

80%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Rapid Vienna's strong form with 4.33 goals scored per game and Paide's struggle to contain them in their last meeting suggest a high-scoring match. Rapid Vienna's home advantage and pi-rating differential of 0.29 also favor them. With Claudy Mbuyi missing for Rapid Vienna, their attack might be slightly weakened but still potent. Paide's recent performances show they can score but also concede. 5 Goals is the strongest pick given the teams' scoring tendencies and head-to-head history.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 95.1% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring form

Recent form leans to Rapid Vienna: 9 points versus 8 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.73 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

95.1%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Rapid Vienna high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Paide high-scoring games

40%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bookmaker implied chance

50%

Market does not fully agree

Rapid Vienna

W W W

Form 3-0-0 Goals 13:4 Scored/game 4.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Paide

L D W W D

Form 2-2-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 1.2

Head to head · last 1

Rapid Vienna 1wins ·0 draws ·Paide 0wins

Rapid Vienna 4-1 PaideAug 6, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rapid Vienna win80.0%

Draw10.0%

Paide win10.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.1%

Over 3.5 goals87.4%

Both teams to score84.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.6%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.5%

Goal in Both Halves91.5%

Draw No Bet - Home88.4%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Home or Draw (1X)86.0%

Home Win76.4%

Draw or Away (X2)19.6%

Draw No Bet - Away11.6%

Away Win10.0%

Draw9.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.2%

Over 3.5 Goals83.8%

4+ Goals83.8%

Over 4.5 Goals72.1%

Over 5.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals42.9%

Under 4.5 Goals27.9%

2-4 Goals22.6%

3-4 Goals19.1%

Under 3.5 Goals16.2%

1-3 Goals12.0%

2-3 Goals10.9%

Under 2.5 Goals8.8%

Exactly 3 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

1-2 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score81.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.8%

Home Clean Sheet14.8%

Home Win to Nil14.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 0.581.1%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.553.4%

Away Exactly 127.7%

Away Over 2.527.6%

Away 3+ Goals27.6%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 014.8%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)64.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away64.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.9%

Home to win by 3+46.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home31.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.5%

Home to win by 113.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 15.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 22.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.7%

Home & Over 2.573.8%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS14.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & BTTS9.4%

Away & BTTS9.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.3%

HT Over 1.578.0%

HT Home Win64.9%

HT/FT Home/Home60.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.8%

HT Both Teams Score49.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.0%

HT Draw20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half15.7%

HT Away Win14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT Under 0.55.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions