Spain · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Rayo Vallecano 46.3% Draw 28.5% Alaves 25.2%

Over 2.5 - 36% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Alaves: 8 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Rayo Vallecano

L L W W D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Alaves

W L W W D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Rayo Vallecano 4wins ·0 draws ·Alaves 1wins

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 AlavesMay 23, 2026

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 AlavesOct 26, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 2-0 AlavesMar 29, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 AlavesOct 26, 2024

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 AlavesMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rayo Vallecano win46.3%

Draw28.5%

Alaves win25.2%

Over 1.5 goals62.6%

Over 2.5 goals35.8%

Over 3.5 goals16.7%

Both teams to score73.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.9%

Home Team to Score

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.8%

Home or Away (12)80.8%

Draw No Bet - Home78.8%

Both Halves Over 0.565.8%

Goal in Both Halves65.8%

Home Win63.7%

Draw or Away (X2)36.3%

Draw No Bet - Away21.2%

Draw19.1%

Away Win17.1%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.9%

Under 4.5 Goals75.0%

Over 2.5 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals59.9%

Under 3.5 Goals56.5%

1-3 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.5%

4+ Goals43.5%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.6%

1-2 Goals31.1%

Over 4.5 Goals25.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.5%

Under 1.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.6%

Away Team to Score66.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Home Clean Sheet33.3%

Home Win to Nil29.9%

Away Clean Sheet10.3%

Away Win to Nil6.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.6%

Away Over 0.566.6%

Home Over 1.566.2%

Home Over 2.539.6%

Home 3+ Goals39.6%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 033.3%

Away Over 1.530.0%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.4%

Away Exactly 220.1%

Home Exactly 010.3%

Away Over 2.59.9%

Away 3+ Goals9.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.6%

Home to win by 122.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.1%

Home to win by 3+22.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 110.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 24.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.551.2%

Home & Over 2.547.0%

Home & BTTS33.8%

Home & No BTTS29.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.0%

Home & Under 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.2%

Draw & Under 2.512.0%

Away & Over 2.511.3%

Away & BTTS10.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS6.9%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.1%

HT Under 1.555.2%

HT Home Win47.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.8%

HT/FT Home/Home42.1%

HT Draw34.5%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score25.0%

Equal Goals Each Half22.4%

HT Under 0.521.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.0%

HT Away Win17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Away/Away9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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