Spain · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club

Kick-off 13:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Rayo Vallecano 40.2% Draw 29.9% Athletic Club 29.9%

Over 2.5 - 37% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Rayo Vallecano 0 wins, 1 draws, Athletic Club 4 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Rayo Vallecano

D W L W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:14 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.33

Athletic Club

D D W W L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Rayo Vallecano 0wins ·1 draws ·Athletic Club 4wins

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic ClubFeb 28, 2026

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic ClubAug 25, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Athletic ClubApr 13, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic ClubDec 1, 2024

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic ClubMay 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rayo Vallecano win40.2%

Draw29.9%

Athletic Club win29.9%

Over 1.5 goals63.9%

Over 2.5 goals36.7%

Over 3.5 goals17.3%

Both teams to score71.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Home or Draw (1X)77.9%

Both Halves Over 0.576.0%

Goal in Both Halves76.0%

Draw No Bet - Home73.2%

Home Win59.9%

Draw or Away (X2)40.0%

Draw No Bet - Away26.8%

Away Win21.9%

Draw18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals78.2%

Under 5.5 Goals76.2%

Under 4.5 Goals60.0%

Over 3.5 Goals59.5%

4+ Goals59.5%

2-4 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals40.5%

Over 4.5 Goals40.0%

1-3 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals38.2%

2-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals23.8%

Under 2.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.8%

Exactly 2 Goals13.5%

Under 1.5 Goals8.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.4%

Away Team to Score78.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.1%

Home Clean Sheet21.0%

Home Win to Nil19.5%

Away Clean Sheet7.4%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.4%

Away Over 0.578.8%

Home Over 1.573.1%

Home Over 2.547.9%

Home 3+ Goals47.9%

Away Over 1.546.1%

Away Exactly 132.8%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 021.0%

Away Over 2.520.6%

Away 3+ Goals20.6%

Home Exactly 119.3%

Home Exactly 07.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.5%

Home to win by 3+22.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.2%

Home to win by 120.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.6%

Away to win by 3+3.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.566.6%

Home & Over 2.550.5%

Home & BTTS40.4%

Home & No BTTS19.5%

Away & Over 2.517.6%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Away & BTTS16.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.2%

Home & Under 2.59.4%

Draw & Under 2.57.9%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.6%

HT Over 1.555.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Home Win47.0%

HT Under 1.544.2%

HT/FT Home/Home39.9%

HT Both Teams Score34.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.9%

HT Away Win22.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.515.4%

HT/FT Away/Away12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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