Spain · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Kick-off 16:15 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Rayo Vallecano 37.0% Draw 30.4% Celta Vigo 32.6%

Over 2.5 - 39% BTTS - 33%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 18%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Celta Vigo: 8 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18%

Exact-score model probability

Rayo Vallecano

L D D W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Celta Vigo

D W D W D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Rayo Vallecano 2wins ·2 draws ·Celta Vigo 1wins

Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Celta VigoJan 18, 2026

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta VigoSep 21, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta VigoMay 18, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta VigoJan 10, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Celta VigoMar 31, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rayo Vallecano win37.0%

Draw30.4%

Celta Vigo win32.6%

Over 1.5 goals66.1%

Over 2.5 goals38.6%

Over 3.5 goals18.7%

Both teams to score33.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

89.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

83.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

82.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)75.9%

Home or Away (12)67.6%

Draw No Bet - Away64.4%

Home or Draw (1X)56.5%

Away Win43.5%

Draw No Bet - Home35.6%

Both Halves Over 0.534.4%

Goal in Both Halves34.4%

Draw32.4%

Exactly 1 Goal30.0%

Home Win24.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.0%

Under 4.5 Goals96.5%

Under 3.5 Goals89.5%

Over 0.5 Goals83.1%

Under 2.5 Goals73.7%

1-3 Goals72.6%

1-2 Goals56.8%

Over 1.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even51.4%

2-4 Goals49.6%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

Under 1.5 Goals46.9%

2-3 Goals42.5%

Exactly 2 Goals26.7%

Over 2.5 Goals26.3%

3-4 Goals22.9%

Under 0.5 Goals16.9%

Exactly 0 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.8%

Over 3.5 Goals10.5%

4+ Goals10.5%

Over 4.5 Goals3.5%

Over 5.5 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)66.6%

Away Team to Score65.6%

Home Team to Score50.9%

Away Clean Sheet49.1%

Home Clean Sheet34.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.4%

Away Win to Nil32.2%

Home Win to Nil17.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.565.6%

Home Over 0.550.9%

Home Exactly 049.1%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 134.9%

Away Exactly 034.4%

Away Over 1.528.9%

Away Exactly 219.6%

Home Over 1.516.0%

Home Exactly 212.4%

Away Over 2.59.3%

Away 3+ Goals9.3%

Home Over 2.53.5%

Home 3+ Goals3.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.8%

Away to win by 125.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.3%

Away to win by 212.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 25.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.4%

Away to win by 3+5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.5%

Home to win by 3+1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.560.8%

Away & No BTTS32.2%

Draw & Under 2.529.7%

Away & Under 2.527.6%

BTTS & Over 2.520.6%

Home & No BTTS17.5%

Home & Under 2.516.3%

Away & Over 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

BTTS & Under 2.512.8%

Away & BTTS11.3%

Home & Over 2.57.8%

Home & BTTS6.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.8%

Draw & Over 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.580.9%

HT Over 0.555.1%

HT Draw52.1%

HT Under 0.544.9%

2nd Half More Goals38.4%

Equal Goals Each Half32.9%

HT Away Win29.7%

1st Half More Goals28.7%

HT/FT Away/Away24.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw24.4%

HT Over 1.519.1%

HT Home Win18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.3%

HT/FT Home/Home12.8%

HT Both Teams Score10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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