Spain · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Kick-off 13:00 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Rayo Vallecano 48.3% Draw 27.0% Elche 24.7%

Over 2.5 - 46% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Rayo Vallecano: 8 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Rayo Vallecano

D D W L W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:14 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.33

Elche

D D W L D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Rayo Vallecano 2wins ·0 draws ·Elche 3wins

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 ElcheApr 3, 2026

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 ElcheDec 21, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 ElcheApr 29, 2023

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 ElcheOct 3, 2022

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 ElcheFeb 18, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rayo Vallecano win48.3%

Draw27.0%

Elche win24.7%

Over 1.5 goals72.0%

Over 2.5 goals45.8%

Over 3.5 goals24.4%

Both teams to score81.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Both Halves Over 0.575.8%

Goal in Both Halves75.8%

Home or Draw (1X)63.2%

Draw or Away (X2)57.0%

Draw No Bet - Home53.9%

Draw No Bet - Away46.1%

Home Win42.9%

Away Win36.7%

Draw20.3%

Exactly 1 Goal6.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals78.1%

Under 5.5 Goals76.4%

Under 4.5 Goals60.3%

Over 3.5 Goals59.2%

4+ Goals59.2%

2-4 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals40.8%

Over 4.5 Goals39.7%

1-3 Goals39.1%

3-4 Goals38.3%

2-3 Goals32.5%

Over 5.5 Goals23.6%

Under 2.5 Goals21.9%

1-2 Goals20.3%

Exactly 3 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals13.7%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.3%

Away Team to Score86.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.8%

Home Clean Sheet13.7%

Home Win to Nil12.1%

Away Clean Sheet11.6%

Away Win to Nil10.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.3%

Away Over 0.586.2%

Home Over 1.563.3%

Away Over 1.559.0%

Home Over 2.536.3%

Home 3+ Goals36.3%

Away Over 2.531.9%

Away 3+ Goals31.9%

Away Exactly 127.2%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 125.0%

Away Exactly 013.7%

Home Exactly 011.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.9%

Away to win by 116.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 212.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.9%

Home to win by 3+11.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 210.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.0%

Away to win by 3+9.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.3%

Home & Over 2.535.8%

Home & BTTS30.8%

Away & Over 2.530.4%

Away & BTTS26.7%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.1%

Home & No BTTS12.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

Away & No BTTS10.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.8%

Away & Under 2.56.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.5%

HT Over 1.555.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.5%

HT Both Teams Score36.6%

HT Home Win35.9%

HT Draw32.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Away Win31.9%

HT/FT Home/Home26.9%

HT/FT Away/Away22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT Under 0.515.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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