Spain · La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

Kick-off 18:00 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Rayo Vallecano 45.7% Draw 28.4% Espanyol 25.9%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Espanyol: 4 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.3%

Exact-score model probability

Rayo Vallecano

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:15 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.5

Espanyol

W D L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Rayo Vallecano 1wins ·0 draws ·Espanyol 4wins

Rayo Vallecano 1-0 EspanyolApr 23, 2026

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 EspanyolDec 7, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 EspanyolApr 4, 2025

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 EspanyolAug 31, 2024

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 EspanyolMay 21, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rayo Vallecano win45.7%

Draw28.4%

Espanyol win25.9%

Over 1.5 goals66.4%

Over 2.5 goals39.5%

Over 3.5 goals19.4%

Both teams to score76.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.7%

Both Halves Over 0.567.7%

Goal in Both Halves67.7%

Draw or Away (X2)61.8%

Home or Draw (1X)60.5%

Draw No Bet - Away50.8%

Draw No Bet - Home49.2%

Away Win39.5%

Home Win38.2%

Draw22.3%

Exactly 1 Goal10.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.4%

Under 5.5 Goals85.8%

Under 4.5 Goals72.6%

Over 2.5 Goals67.9%

2-4 Goals59.0%

Under 3.5 Goals53.7%

1-3 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.3%

4+ Goals46.3%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.1%

Under 2.5 Goals32.1%

1-2 Goals29.1%

Over 4.5 Goals27.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.5%

Over 5.5 Goals14.2%

Under 1.5 Goals13.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.9%

Home Team to Score82.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.8%

Away Clean Sheet17.7%

Home Clean Sheet17.1%

Away Win to Nil14.6%

Home Win to Nil14.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.9%

Home Over 0.582.3%

Away Over 1.552.7%

Home Over 1.551.7%

Home Exactly 130.6%

Away Exactly 130.2%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Away Over 2.526.0%

Away 3+ Goals26.0%

Home Over 2.525.1%

Home 3+ Goals25.1%

Home Exactly 017.7%

Away Exactly 017.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away61.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home60.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)39.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)38.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 118.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 118.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.8%

Away to win by 211.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.4%

Home to win by 211.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.8%

Away to win by 3+8.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.3%

Home to win by 3+8.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.0%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Home & Over 2.528.4%

Away & BTTS24.9%

Home & BTTS24.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.9%

Draw & BTTS19.3%

Away & No BTTS14.6%

Home & No BTTS14.1%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Away & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

Home & Under 2.59.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.3%

HT Under 1.553.3%

HT Over 1.546.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT Draw35.7%

HT Away Win32.6%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Home Win31.7%

HT Both Teams Score29.7%

HT/FT Away/Away24.1%

HT/FT Home/Home23.2%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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