Germany · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

RB Leipzig 68.5% Draw 19.7% Hamburger SV 11.8%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Hamburger SV: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.8%

Exact-score model probability

RB Leipzig

L L W L W L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 9:16 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.67

Hamburger SV

L L D W W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 2

RB Leipzig 2wins ·0 draws ·Hamburger SV 0wins

RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SVMar 1, 2026

RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SVOct 18, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

RB Leipzig win68.5%

Draw19.7%

Hamburger SV win11.8%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.5%

Both teams to score67.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.2%

Home or Draw (1X)91.8%

Home or Away (12)88.9%

Home Win81.9%

Both Halves Over 0.581.4%

Goal in Both Halves81.4%

Draw or Away (X2)16.9%

Draw9.9%

Draw No Bet - Away7.8%

Away Win7.0%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals83.7%

Over 3.5 Goals68.0%

4+ Goals68.0%

Under 5.5 Goals67.8%

Under 4.5 Goals50.4%

Over 4.5 Goals49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

2-4 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals32.2%

Under 3.5 Goals32.0%

1-3 Goals29.9%

2-3 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals16.3%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score65.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.3%

Home Clean Sheet33.3%

Home Win to Nil32.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.5%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 0.565.5%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Exactly 033.3%

Away Over 1.529.3%

Away Exactly 219.7%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Away Over 2.59.6%

Away 3+ Goals9.6%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.6%

Home to win by 3+47.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.8%

BTTS & Over 2.560.2%

Home & BTTS49.5%

Home & No BTTS32.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Home & Under 2.59.2%

Draw & BTTS9.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.5%

Away & Over 2.55.5%

Away & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Home Win65.6%

HT Over 1.562.6%

HT/FT Home/Home62.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Under 1.537.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score31.1%

HT Draw23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.7%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT Away Win10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Away/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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