England · League Cup

Reading vs Brentford

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Reading 83.4% Draw 10.9% Brentford 5.7%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

94%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Reading

W D

Form 1-1-0 Goals 4:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.5

Brentford

D D D W W D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Reading win83.4%

Draw10.9%

Brentford win5.7%

Over 1.5 goals94.1%

Over 2.5 goals81.8%

Over 3.5 goals64.5%

Both teams to score60.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

Home or Away (12)

89.2%

HT Over 0.5

86.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.1%

Home or Draw (1X)92.8%

Home or Away (12)89.2%

Home Win83.0%

Both Halves Over 0.579.0%

Goal in Both Halves79.0%

Draw or Away (X2)16.0%

Draw9.8%

Draw No Bet - Away6.9%

Away Win6.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals81.0%

Under 5.5 Goals72.2%

Over 3.5 Goals63.9%

4+ Goals63.9%

Under 4.5 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-4 Goals47.9%

Over 4.5 Goals44.8%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Under 3.5 Goals36.1%

1-3 Goals34.0%

2-3 Goals28.8%

Over 5.5 Goals27.8%

Under 2.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

1-2 Goals16.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score60.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.1%

Home Clean Sheet38.3%

Home Win to Nil37.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.4%

Home Over 2.566.9%

Home 3+ Goals66.9%

Away Over 0.560.7%

Away Exactly 038.3%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Over 1.524.3%

Home Exactly 218.5%

Away Exactly 217.3%

Home Exactly 110.6%

Away Over 2.57.1%

Away 3+ Goals7.1%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home67.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.9%

Home to win by 3+47.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)31.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away31.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.2%

Home to win by 219.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.4%

Away to win by 21.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.8%

BTTS & Over 2.555.0%

Home & BTTS45.9%

Home & No BTTS37.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.1%

Home & Under 2.511.3%

Draw & BTTS8.6%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Away & Over 2.54.6%

Away & BTTS4.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Away & No BTTS1.9%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.5%

HT Home Win66.0%

HT/FT Home/Home62.9%

HT Over 1.559.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score27.6%

HT Draw24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT Under 0.513.5%

HT Away Win9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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