Spain · La Liga

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Real Madrid 74.6% Draw 16.6% Rayo Vallecano 8.7%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 15 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Real Madrid

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:6 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1

Rayo Vallecano

W L D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Real Madrid 2wins ·3 draws ·Rayo Vallecano 0wins

Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo VallecanoFeb 1, 2026

Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo VallecanoNov 9, 2025

Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo VallecanoMar 9, 2025

Real Madrid 3-3 Rayo VallecanoDec 14, 2024

Real Madrid 1-1 Rayo VallecanoFeb 18, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Madrid win74.6%

Draw16.6%

Rayo Vallecano win8.7%

Over 1.5 goals79.0%

Over 2.5 goals56.0%

Over 3.5 goals33.6%

Both teams to score63.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.9%

Draw No Bet - Home91.8%

Home or Away (12)88.5%

Home Win81.2%

Both Halves Over 0.578.5%

Goal in Both Halves78.5%

Draw or Away (X2)17.9%

Draw10.7%

Draw No Bet - Away8.2%

Away Win7.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals92.5%

Over 2.5 Goals80.6%

Under 5.5 Goals72.9%

Over 3.5 Goals63.2%

4+ Goals63.2%

Under 4.5 Goals56.0%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

2-4 Goals48.5%

Over 4.5 Goals44.0%

Under 3.5 Goals36.8%

3-4 Goals36.6%

1-3 Goals34.8%

2-3 Goals29.4%

Over 5.5 Goals27.1%

Under 2.5 Goals19.4%

Exactly 3 Goals17.4%

1-2 Goals17.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score62.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.3%

Home Clean Sheet36.3%

Home Win to Nil35.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Home Over 2.565.1%

Home 3+ Goals65.1%

Away Over 0.562.9%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Exactly 036.3%

Away Over 1.526.4%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Away Exactly 218.3%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Away Over 2.58.1%

Away 3+ Goals8.1%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.1%

Home to win by 3+45.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 15.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.570.0%

BTTS & Over 2.556.5%

Home & BTTS46.2%

Home & No BTTS35.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.4%

Home & Under 2.511.3%

Draw & BTTS9.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.4%

Away & Over 2.55.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Away & BTTS5.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS2.1%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.2%

HT Home Win64.1%

HT/FT Home/Home60.6%

HT Over 1.558.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score28.5%

HT Draw25.1%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT Under 0.513.8%

HT Away Win10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Away/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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