Spain · La Liga

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Aug 26

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Real Madrid 74.4% Draw 15.5% Real Sociedad 10.0%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 15 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Real Madrid

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Real Sociedad

L D L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Real Madrid 5wins ·0 draws ·Real Sociedad 0wins

Real Madrid 4-1 Real SociedadFeb 14, 2026

Real Madrid 2-1 Real SociedadSep 13, 2025

Real Madrid 2-0 Real SociedadMay 24, 2025

Real Madrid 2-0 Real SociedadSep 14, 2024

Real Madrid 1-0 Real SociedadApr 26, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Madrid win74.4%

Draw15.5%

Real Sociedad win10.0%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals64.5%

Over 3.5 goals42.5%

Both teams to score68.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.7%

Draw No Bet - Home89.7%

Home or Away (12)86.7%

Home Win77.8%

Both Halves Over 0.573.5%

Goal in Both Halves73.5%

Draw or Away (X2)21.8%

Draw12.9%

Draw No Bet - Away10.3%

Away Win8.9%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals90.0%

Under 5.5 Goals79.8%

Over 2.5 Goals74.9%

Under 4.5 Goals64.4%

Over 3.5 Goals55.1%

4+ Goals55.1%

2-4 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals44.9%

1-3 Goals42.6%

3-4 Goals39.4%

Over 4.5 Goals35.6%

2-3 Goals34.9%

Under 2.5 Goals25.1%

1-2 Goals22.8%

Over 5.5 Goals20.2%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.1%

Under 1.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.6%

Away Team to Score61.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.8%

Home Clean Sheet38.3%

Home Win to Nil36.4%

Away Clean Sheet5.1%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.6%

Home Over 1.579.5%

Away Over 0.561.3%

Home Over 2.557.0%

Home 3+ Goals57.0%

Away Exactly 038.3%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 1.524.7%

Home Exactly 222.5%

Away Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 115.1%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Home Exactly 05.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.2%

Home to win by 3+38.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 220.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 16.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.563.3%

BTTS & Over 2.552.6%

Home & BTTS41.4%

Home & No BTTS36.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.2%

Home & Under 2.514.5%

Draw & BTTS11.0%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

Away & Over 2.56.1%

Away & BTTS5.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.0%

HT Home Win59.9%

HT/FT Home/Home56.0%

HT Over 1.552.9%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT Under 1.547.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw28.3%

HT Both Teams Score25.8%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.3%

HT Under 0.517.0%

HT Away Win11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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