Spain · La Liga

Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Real Madrid 77.4% Draw 14.8% Sevilla 7.7%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Real Madrid: 15 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Real Madrid

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Sevilla

D L W W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Real Madrid 5wins ·0 draws ·Sevilla 0wins

Real Madrid 1-0 SevillaMay 17, 2026

Real Madrid 2-0 SevillaDec 20, 2025

Real Madrid 2-0 SevillaMay 18, 2025

Real Madrid 4-2 SevillaDec 22, 2024

Real Madrid 1-0 SevillaFeb 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Madrid win77.4%

Draw14.8%

Sevilla win7.7%

Over 1.5 goals84.0%

Over 2.5 goals63.5%

Over 3.5 goals41.3%

Both teams to score69.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Home or Away (12)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home91.9%

Home or Away (12)88.4%

Home Win81.3%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Draw or Away (X2)18.1%

Draw10.9%

Draw No Bet - Away8.1%

Away Win7.1%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals79.0%

Under 5.5 Goals75.1%

Over 3.5 Goals60.8%

4+ Goals60.8%

Under 4.5 Goals58.6%

2-4 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals41.4%

Under 3.5 Goals39.2%

3-4 Goals37.6%

1-3 Goals37.1%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals24.9%

Under 2.5 Goals21.0%

1-2 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score61.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.2%

Home Clean Sheet38.2%

Home Win to Nil36.8%

Away Clean Sheet3.7%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.583.5%

Home Over 2.563.4%

Home 3+ Goals63.4%

Away Over 0.561.1%

Away Exactly 038.2%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.524.6%

Home Exactly 220.1%

Away Exactly 217.4%

Home Exactly 112.1%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Home Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away55.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.3%

Home to win by 3+44.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 219.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.9%

Away to win by 14.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.7%

Away to win by 21.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.568.9%

BTTS & Over 2.554.4%

Home & BTTS44.5%

Home & No BTTS36.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.8%

Home & Under 2.512.4%

Draw & BTTS9.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Over 2.55.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Away & BTTS4.9%

BTTS & Under 2.54.5%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Home Win63.8%

HT/FT Home/Home60.3%

HT Over 1.557.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.0%

HT Draw25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.7%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT Away Win10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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