Spain · La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Kick-off 20:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Real Sociedad 34.4% Draw 25.1% Atletico Madrid 40.4%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Real Sociedad

W D W L L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

Atletico Madrid

L L W D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Real Sociedad 0wins ·2 draws ·Atletico Madrid 3wins

Real Sociedad 2-3 Atletico MadridMar 7, 2026

Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico MadridJan 4, 2026

Real Sociedad 0-4 Atletico MadridMay 10, 2025

Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico MadridOct 6, 2024

Real Sociedad 0-2 Atletico MadridMay 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Sociedad win34.4%

Draw25.1%

Atletico Madrid win40.4%

Over 1.5 goals77.5%

Over 2.5 goals53.9%

Over 3.5 goals31.6%

Both teams to score84.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.7%

HT Over 0.5

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.3%

Both Halves Over 0.581.3%

Goal in Both Halves81.3%

Home or Draw (1X)68.5%

Draw No Bet - Home61.5%

Home Win50.0%

Draw or Away (X2)49.8%

Draw No Bet - Away38.5%

Away Win31.3%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals84.6%

Over 3.5 Goals68.8%

4+ Goals68.8%

Under 5.5 Goals67.0%

Over 4.5 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals49.7%

2-4 Goals44.3%

3-4 Goals34.2%

Over 5.5 Goals33.0%

Under 3.5 Goals31.2%

1-3 Goals30.1%

2-3 Goals25.8%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

Under 2.5 Goals15.4%

1-2 Goals14.3%

Exactly 2 Goals10.1%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.5%

Away Team to Score87.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.0%

Home Clean Sheet12.4%

Home Win to Nil11.5%

Away Clean Sheet7.3%

Away Win to Nil6.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.5%

Away Over 0.587.4%

Home Over 1.573.4%

Away Over 1.561.5%

Home Over 2.548.3%

Home 3+ Goals48.3%

Away Over 2.534.5%

Away 3+ Goals34.5%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.9%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Home Exactly 119.1%

Away Exactly 012.4%

Home Exactly 07.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.3%

Home to win by 3+17.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.6%

Away to win by 3+7.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.0%

Home & Over 2.544.5%

Home & BTTS38.5%

Away & Over 2.527.5%

Away & BTTS24.9%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

Home & No BTTS11.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Away & No BTTS6.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.9%

HT Over 1.562.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Both Teams Score42.1%

HT Home Win41.3%

HT Under 1.537.6%

HT/FT Home/Home32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw29.5%

HT Away Win29.2%

HT/FT Away/Away19.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.9%

HT Under 0.512.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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