Spain · La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Sep 3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Real Sociedad 47.1% Draw 24.4% Celta Vigo 28.5%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

57%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Head-to-head record: Real Sociedad 2 wins, 1 draws, Celta Vigo 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12%

Exact-score model probability

Real Sociedad

W L L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Celta Vigo

L L D W D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Real Sociedad 2wins ·1 draws ·Celta Vigo 2wins

Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta VigoJan 25, 2026

Real Sociedad 1-1 Celta VigoOct 19, 2025

Real Sociedad 0-1 Celta VigoMay 13, 2025

Real Sociedad 0-2 Celta VigoDec 21, 2024

Real Sociedad 1-0 Celta VigoJan 20, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Sociedad win47.1%

Draw24.4%

Celta Vigo win28.5%

Over 1.5 goals77.5%

Over 2.5 goals54.0%

Over 3.5 goals31.7%

Both teams to score64.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

85.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

84.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

84.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.6%

Home or Draw (1X)65.8%

Draw or Away (X2)59.7%

Both Halves Over 0.555.5%

Goal in Both Halves55.5%

Draw No Bet - Home54.1%

Draw No Bet - Away45.9%

Home Win40.3%

Away Win34.2%

Draw25.4%

Exactly 1 Goal17.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.9%

Over 0.5 Goals93.6%

Under 4.5 Goals85.4%

Over 1.5 Goals76.1%

Under 3.5 Goals70.2%

1-3 Goals63.8%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.0%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals29.8%

4+ Goals29.8%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.6%

Under 0.5 Goals6.4%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score76.4%

Away Team to Score73.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.2%

Home Clean Sheet26.9%

Away Clean Sheet23.6%

Home Win to Nil20.6%

Away Win to Nil17.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.576.4%

Away Over 0.573.1%

Home Over 1.542.4%

Away Over 1.537.7%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 134.1%

Away Exactly 026.9%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 023.6%

Away Exactly 223.2%

Home Over 2.517.7%

Home 3+ Goals17.7%

Away Over 2.514.6%

Away 3+ Goals14.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.8%

Away to win by 29.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.3%

Home to win by 3+7.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.2%

Away to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.9%

Home & Over 2.524.5%

Home & No BTTS20.6%

Away & Over 2.520.5%

Home & BTTS19.7%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.4%

Away & No BTTS17.2%

Away & BTTS17.0%

Home & Under 2.515.8%

Away & Under 2.513.8%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.1%

HT Under 1.564.8%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw41.1%

HT Over 1.535.2%

HT Home Win31.3%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.9%

HT Away Win27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT/FT Home/Home24.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.3%

HT/FT Away/Away19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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