Spain · La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Real Sociedad 51.9% Draw 24.3% Espanyol 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Espanyol: 3 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Real Sociedad

L L D L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

Espanyol

L W D W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Real Sociedad 3wins ·2 draws ·Espanyol 0wins

Real Sociedad 1-1 EspanyolMay 23, 2026

Real Sociedad 2-2 EspanyolAug 24, 2025

Real Sociedad 2-1 EspanyolFeb 9, 2025

Real Sociedad 1-0 EspanyolAug 24, 2024

Real Sociedad 3-2 EspanyolFeb 13, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Sociedad win51.9%

Draw24.3%

Espanyol win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals74.9%

Over 2.5 goals50.5%

Over 3.5 goals28.4%

Both teams to score88.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.5%

Goal in Both Halves83.5%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Home or Draw (1X)75.0%

Draw No Bet - Home70.2%

Home Win58.1%

Draw or Away (X2)41.5%

Draw No Bet - Away29.8%

Away Win24.7%

Draw16.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals86.8%

Over 3.5 Goals72.6%

4+ Goals72.6%

Under 5.5 Goals62.6%

Over 4.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals45.1%

2-4 Goals40.5%

Over 5.5 Goals37.4%

3-4 Goals31.9%

Under 3.5 Goals27.4%

1-3 Goals26.3%

2-3 Goals22.8%

Exactly 3 Goals14.2%

Under 2.5 Goals13.2%

1-2 Goals12.1%

Exactly 2 Goals8.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.5%

Away Team to Score85.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.7%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet5.1%

Away Win to Nil4.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.5%

Away Over 0.585.9%

Home Over 1.579.4%

Away Over 1.558.7%

Home Over 2.556.9%

Home 3+ Goals56.9%

Away Over 2.531.8%

Away 3+ Goals31.8%

Away Exactly 127.2%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 222.5%

Home Exactly 115.1%

Away Exactly 013.7%

Home Exactly 05.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.7%

Home to win by 3+23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 118.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 27.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.3%

Away to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.4%

Home & Over 2.552.9%

Home & BTTS45.1%

Away & Over 2.521.9%

Away & BTTS20.3%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Under 2.55.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS4.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.3%

HT Over 1.565.4%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Home Win47.1%

HT Both Teams Score43.6%

HT/FT Home/Home39.3%

HT Under 1.534.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.9%

HT Away Win24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Away/Away14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT Under 0.510.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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