UEFA Europa League

Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Kick-off 18:45 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Real Sociedad 42.4% Draw 24.3% Lyon 33.3%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 12 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Real Sociedad

L W W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Lyon

W L W L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:6 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Sociedad win42.4%

Draw24.3%

Lyon win33.3%

Over 1.5 goals88.1%

Over 2.5 goals68.8%

Over 3.5 goals47.3%

Both teams to score69.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

86.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.0%

Both Halves Over 0.568.4%

Goal in Both Halves68.4%

Home or Draw (1X)65.6%

Draw or Away (X2)56.4%

Draw No Bet - Home55.9%

Draw No Bet - Away44.1%

Home Win43.6%

Away Win34.4%

Draw22.0%

Exactly 1 Goal10.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals86.9%

Under 5.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals71.7%

Over 2.5 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals58.6%

Under 3.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals47.3%

4+ Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.6%

Under 2.5 Goals31.3%

1-2 Goals28.4%

Over 4.5 Goals28.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.8%

Away Team to Score81.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.3%

Home Clean Sheet19.0%

Home Win to Nil16.1%

Away Clean Sheet15.2%

Away Win to Nil12.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.8%

Away Over 0.581.0%

Home Over 1.556.2%

Away Over 1.549.4%

Away Exactly 131.6%

Home Over 2.529.2%

Home 3+ Goals29.2%

Home Exactly 128.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 2.523.2%

Away 3+ Goals23.2%

Away Exactly 019.0%

Home Exactly 015.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.8%

Home to win by 119.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.4%

Away to win by 117.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.8%

Home to win by 3+10.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.9%

Away to win by 3+6.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.7%

Home & Over 2.533.0%

Home & BTTS27.5%

Away & Over 2.525.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.2%

Away & BTTS22.1%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Home & No BTTS16.1%

Away & No BTTS12.3%

Draw & Under 2.511.9%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Away & Under 2.58.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.7%

HT Under 1.552.6%

HT Over 1.547.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT Home Win35.3%

HT Draw35.3%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score30.1%

HT Away Win29.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT/FT Away/Away20.6%

HT Under 0.520.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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