Spain · La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Real Sociedad 52.5% Draw 24.3% Rayo Vallecano 23.2%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 87%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Real Sociedad: 12 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Real Sociedad

L W W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Rayo Vallecano

W L D D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Real Sociedad 0wins ·3 draws ·Rayo Vallecano 2wins

Real Sociedad 3-3 Rayo VallecanoApr 26, 2026

Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo VallecanoOct 5, 2025

Real Sociedad 2-2 Rayo VallecanoMar 16, 2025

Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo VallecanoAug 18, 2024

Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo VallecanoJan 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Real Sociedad win52.5%

Draw24.3%

Rayo Vallecano win23.2%

Over 1.5 goals78.1%

Over 2.5 goals54.2%

Over 3.5 goals31.9%

Both teams to score87.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.7%

HT Over 0.5

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.7%

Goal in Both Halves85.7%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home or Draw (1X)78.3%

Draw No Bet - Home75.0%

Home Win62.9%

Draw or Away (X2)36.3%

Draw No Bet - Away25.0%

Away Win21.0%

Draw15.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals96.1%

Over 2.5 Goals89.0%

Over 3.5 Goals76.4%

4+ Goals76.4%

Over 4.5 Goals59.9%

Under 5.5 Goals57.5%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals42.5%

Under 4.5 Goals40.1%

2-4 Goals36.2%

3-4 Goals29.0%

Under 3.5 Goals23.6%

1-3 Goals22.3%

2-3 Goals19.6%

Exactly 3 Goals12.5%

Under 2.5 Goals11.0%

1-2 Goals9.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.1%

Under 1.5 Goals3.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score85.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.6%

Home Clean Sheet13.7%

Home Win to Nil13.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.7%

Away Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Away Over 0.585.6%

Home Over 1.583.4%

Home Over 2.563.3%

Home 3+ Goals63.3%

Away Over 1.558.4%

Away Over 2.531.6%

Away 3+ Goals31.6%

Away Exactly 127.2%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 220.1%

Away Exactly 013.7%

Home Exactly 112.2%

Home Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.6%

Home to win by 3+28.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 216.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.7%

Away to win by 110.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 26.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.3%

Away to win by 3+4.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.0%

Home & Over 2.558.5%

Home & BTTS49.7%

Away & Over 2.519.0%

Away & BTTS17.8%

Draw & BTTS14.8%

Home & No BTTS13.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS3.2%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.7%

HT Over 1.568.6%

HT Home Win51.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.2%

HT Both Teams Score45.6%

HT/FT Home/Home43.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.4%

HT Draw26.3%

HT Away Win22.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Away/Away12.5%

HT Under 0.59.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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