UEFA Europa League

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Red Bull Salzburg 60.3% Draw 20.0% AC Milan 19.7%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AC Milan: 7 points versus 12 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Red Bull Salzburg

W D W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

AC Milan

D W D D W W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Red Bull Salzburg win60.3%

Draw20.0%

AC Milan win19.7%

Over 1.5 goals91.5%

Over 2.5 goals75.7%

Over 3.5 goals56.0%

Both teams to score71.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.9%

Home Over 0.5

91.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.6%

Home or Draw (1X)79.3%

Draw No Bet - Home74.8%

Both Halves Over 0.573.9%

Goal in Both Halves73.9%

Home Win61.1%

Draw or Away (X2)38.8%

Draw No Bet - Away25.2%

Away Win20.6%

Draw18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal7.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.5%

Under 5.5 Goals79.1%

Over 2.5 Goals75.6%

Under 4.5 Goals63.6%

Over 3.5 Goals55.9%

4+ Goals55.9%

2-4 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals44.1%

1-3 Goals42.0%

3-4 Goals39.2%

Over 4.5 Goals36.4%

2-3 Goals34.6%

Under 2.5 Goals24.4%

1-2 Goals22.4%

Over 5.5 Goals20.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.7%

Exactly 2 Goals14.9%

Under 1.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.9%

Away Team to Score76.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.7%

Home Win to Nil21.8%

Away Clean Sheet8.0%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.9%

Away Over 0.576.2%

Home Over 1.571.8%

Home Over 2.546.3%

Home 3+ Goals46.3%

Away Over 1.542.1%

Away Exactly 134.1%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 023.7%

Home Exactly 120.2%

Away Over 2.517.6%

Away 3+ Goals17.6%

Home Exactly 08.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.7%

Home to win by 3+22.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

Away to win by 111.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.7%

Away to win by 25.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.3%

Home & Over 2.550.3%

Home & BTTS39.3%

Home & No BTTS21.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.4%

Draw & BTTS16.3%

Away & Over 2.515.9%

Away & BTTS14.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.4%

Home & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Under 2.58.8%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.2%

HT Over 1.553.3%

HT Home Win47.5%

2nd Half More Goals47.4%

HT Under 1.546.7%

HT/FT Home/Home40.7%

HT Both Teams Score32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw31.6%

HT Away Win20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.4%

HT Under 0.516.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT/FT Away/Away11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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