France · Ligue 1

Rennes vs Marseille

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Rennes 43.9% Draw 23.2% Marseille 32.9%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Rennes: 10 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Rennes

W W D L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:13 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.17

Marseille

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Rennes 2wins ·0 draws ·Marseille 3wins

Rennes 1-3 MarseilleMay 17, 2026

Rennes 1-0 MarseilleAug 15, 2025

Rennes 2-4 MarseilleMay 17, 2025

Rennes 1-2 MarseilleJan 11, 2025

Rennes 2-0 MarseilleMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rennes win43.9%

Draw23.2%

Marseille win32.9%

Over 1.5 goals87.6%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals47.6%

Both teams to score75.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.4%

HT Over 0.5

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Both Halves Over 0.582.0%

Goal in Both Halves82.0%

Draw No Bet - Home81.7%

Home Win69.4%

Draw or Away (X2)30.0%

Draw No Bet - Away18.3%

Away Win15.5%

Draw14.5%

Exactly 1 Goal4.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals84.9%

Over 3.5 Goals69.6%

4+ Goals69.6%

Under 5.5 Goals66.1%

Over 4.5 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals48.6%

2-4 Goals43.2%

Over 5.5 Goals33.9%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Under 3.5 Goals30.4%

1-3 Goals28.9%

2-3 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.3%

Under 2.5 Goals15.1%

1-2 Goals13.6%

Exactly 2 Goals9.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score78.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.6%

Home Clean Sheet20.8%

Home Win to Nil20.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.5%

Away Over 0.578.6%

Home Over 2.561.8%

Home 3+ Goals61.8%

Away Over 1.546.0%

Away Exactly 132.6%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 020.8%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Over 2.520.6%

Away 3+ Goals20.6%

Home Exactly 112.9%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.0%

Home to win by 3+33.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.2%

Home & Over 2.562.3%

Home & BTTS49.4%

Home & No BTTS20.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.8%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

Away & Over 2.513.2%

Away & BTTS12.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.2%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.4%

HT Over 1.563.3%

HT Home Win55.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT/FT Home/Home49.1%

HT Both Teams Score38.6%

HT Under 1.536.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT Away Win18.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT Under 0.511.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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