UEFA Europa Conference League

Riga vs FK Jablonec

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Riga 77.2% Draw 11.3% FK Jablonec 11.5%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Riga: 14 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.77 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.5%

Exact-score model probability

Riga

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

FK Jablonec

L W W W L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Riga win77.2%

Draw11.3%

FK Jablonec win11.5%

Over 1.5 goals98.7%

Over 2.5 goals94.4%

Over 3.5 goals86.1%

Both teams to score83.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.7%

Goal in Both Halves90.7%

Draw No Bet - Home86.8%

Home or Away (12)86.3%

Home or Draw (1X)85.4%

Home Win74.9%

Draw or Away (X2)21.9%

Draw No Bet - Away13.2%

Away Win11.4%

Draw10.5%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals91.4%

Over 3.5 Goals83.3%

4+ Goals83.3%

Over 4.5 Goals70.8%

Over 5.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Under 5.5 Goals44.7%

Under 4.5 Goals29.2%

2-4 Goals24.5%

3-4 Goals20.6%

Under 3.5 Goals16.7%

1-3 Goals13.3%

2-3 Goals12.0%

Under 2.5 Goals8.6%

Exactly 3 Goals8.1%

1-2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 2 Goals3.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score82.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.0%

Home Clean Sheet14.6%

Home Win to Nil14.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.4%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.589.6%

Away Over 0.582.2%

Home Over 2.577.1%

Home 3+ Goals77.1%

Away Over 1.554.5%

Away Over 2.528.4%

Away 3+ Goals28.4%

Away Exactly 127.6%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 014.6%

Home Exactly 212.5%

Home Exactly 15.8%

Home Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.3%

Home to win by 3+44.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 114.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 16.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.4%

Home & Over 2.572.1%

Home & BTTS60.5%

Home & No BTTS14.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.0%

Away & Over 2.510.7%

Away & BTTS10.3%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & Under 2.52.8%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.8%

HT Over 1.576.7%

HT Home Win62.8%

HT/FT Home/Home57.9%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Both Teams Score49.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.3%

HT Draw21.3%

Equal Goals Each Half15.9%

HT Away Win15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Away/Away6.6%

HT Under 0.56.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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