UEFA Europa Conference League

Riga vs Kairat Almaty

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Riga 88.2% Draw 8.5% Kairat Almaty 3.3%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Riga: 14 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Riga

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Kairat Almaty

L L L L W L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 1:9 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Riga win88.2%

Draw8.5%

Kairat Almaty win3.3%

Over 1.5 goals93.6%

Over 2.5 goals81.0%

Over 3.5 goals63.2%

Both teams to score50.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

92.0%

Home or Away (12)

91.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.0%

Home or Draw (1X)95.1%

Home or Away (12)91.2%

Home Win87.6%

Both Halves Over 0.578.3%

Goal in Both Halves78.3%

Draw or Away (X2)11.2%

Draw7.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Draw No Bet - Away4.0%

Away Win3.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals79.9%

Under 5.5 Goals73.7%

Over 3.5 Goals62.4%

4+ Goals62.4%

Under 4.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-4 Goals48.8%

Over 4.5 Goals43.1%

Under 3.5 Goals37.6%

3-4 Goals36.8%

1-3 Goals35.1%

2-3 Goals29.6%

Over 5.5 Goals26.3%

Under 2.5 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

1-2 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score50.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.4%

Home Clean Sheet48.0%

Home Win to Nil46.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.6%

Away Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.7%

Home Over 2.569.4%

Home 3+ Goals69.4%

Away Over 0.550.7%

Away Exactly 048.0%

Away Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 217.3%

Away Over 1.516.1%

Away Exactly 212.5%

Home Exactly 19.5%

Away Over 2.53.6%

Away 3+ Goals3.6%

Home Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)73.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home73.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)54.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home54.9%

Home to win by 3+54.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)43.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away43.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home35.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)25.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away25.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away11.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 12.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.574.6%

Home & No BTTS46.7%

BTTS & Over 2.546.1%

Home & BTTS40.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.533.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.5%

Home & Under 2.513.0%

Draw & BTTS6.3%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.9%

Away & Over 2.52.4%

Away & BTTS2.3%

Away & No BTTS1.3%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Home Win70.7%

HT/FT Home/Home68.6%

HT Over 1.558.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw22.5%

HT Both Teams Score22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT Away Win6.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Away1.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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