Portugal · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Estrela

Kick-off 18:45 · Mon, Sep 14

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Rio Ave 38.8% Draw 25.9% Estrela 35.3%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

74%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Estrela: 4 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Rio Ave 3 wins, 1 draws, Estrela 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.7%

Exact-score model probability

Rio Ave

L L W L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:12 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 2

Estrela

W D D D D D

Form 1-5-0 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Rio Ave 3wins ·1 draws ·Estrela 1wins

Rio Ave 2-1 EstrelaMar 15, 2026

Rio Ave 2-1 EstrelaOct 25, 2025

Rio Ave 2-0 EstrelaMay 5, 2025

Rio Ave 0-1 EstrelaDec 23, 2024

Rio Ave 2-2 EstrelaApr 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rio Ave win38.8%

Draw25.9%

Estrela win35.3%

Over 1.5 goals72.5%

Over 2.5 goals47.6%

Over 3.5 goals26.0%

Both teams to score70.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

87.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.5%

Draw or Away (X2)81.7%

Draw No Bet - Away77.9%

Both Halves Over 0.574.2%

Goal in Both Halves74.2%

Away Win64.3%

Home or Draw (1X)35.6%

Draw No Bet - Home22.1%

Home Win18.2%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal7.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.7%

Under 5.5 Goals78.7%

Over 2.5 Goals76.0%

Under 4.5 Goals63.1%

Over 3.5 Goals56.4%

4+ Goals56.4%

2-4 Goals53.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.6%

1-3 Goals41.6%

3-4 Goals39.1%

Over 4.5 Goals36.9%

2-3 Goals34.2%

Under 2.5 Goals24.0%

1-2 Goals22.0%

Over 5.5 Goals21.3%

Exactly 3 Goals19.6%

Exactly 2 Goals14.7%

Under 1.5 Goals9.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.6%

Home Team to Score74.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.0%

Away Clean Sheet25.4%

Away Win to Nil23.6%

Home Clean Sheet7.2%

Home Win to Nil5.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.6%

Home Over 0.574.4%

Away Over 1.573.6%

Away Over 2.548.7%

Away 3+ Goals48.7%

Home Over 1.539.6%

Home Exactly 134.8%

Home Exactly 025.4%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 119.0%

Home Over 2.515.9%

Home 3+ Goals15.9%

Away Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home74.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)64.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)56.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home56.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away43.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home35.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away25.3%

Away to win by 3+25.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.6%

Away to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.3%

Away to win by 218.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.7%

Home to win by 110.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.5%

Home to win by 3+2.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.4%

Away & Over 2.553.1%

Away & BTTS40.7%

Away & No BTTS23.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.3%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Home & Over 2.514.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Home & BTTS12.8%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.9%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Home & No BTTS5.4%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.4%

HT Over 1.553.7%

HT Away Win49.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.3%

HT/FT Away/Away43.5%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Both Teams Score31.9%

HT Draw31.0%

Equal Goals Each Half20.4%

HT Home Win19.3%

HT Under 0.516.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.6%

HT/FT Home/Home10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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