Portugal · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs FC Porto

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Rio Ave 11.8% Draw 20.2% FC Porto 68.0%

Over 2.5 - 46% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 3 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Rio Ave 0 wins, 2 draws, FC Porto 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Rio Ave

L D L D L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

FC Porto

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 9:4 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Rio Ave 0wins ·2 draws ·FC Porto 3wins

Rio Ave 0-1 FC PortoFeb 22, 2026

Rio Ave 0-3 FC PortoSep 19, 2025

Rio Ave 2-2 FC PortoFeb 3, 2025

Rio Ave 0-2 FC PortoAug 24, 2024

Rio Ave 0-0 FC PortoFeb 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rio Ave win11.8%

Draw20.2%

FC Porto win68.0%

Over 1.5 goals71.2%

Over 2.5 goals46.0%

Over 3.5 goals24.5%

Both teams to score78.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

85.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.2%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Draw No Bet - Away81.3%

Both Halves Over 0.573.3%

Goal in Both Halves73.3%

Away Win67.6%

Home or Draw (1X)32.2%

Draw No Bet - Home18.7%

Draw16.6%

Home Win15.6%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals79.9%

Over 2.5 Goals74.9%

Under 4.5 Goals64.5%

Over 3.5 Goals55.0%

4+ Goals55.0%

2-4 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals45.0%

1-3 Goals42.9%

3-4 Goals39.4%

Over 4.5 Goals35.5%

2-3 Goals35.1%

Under 2.5 Goals25.1%

1-2 Goals23.0%

Over 5.5 Goals20.1%

Exactly 3 Goals19.9%

Exactly 2 Goals15.2%

Under 1.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.0%

Home Team to Score71.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.8%

Away Clean Sheet28.7%

Away Win to Nil26.7%

Home Clean Sheet6.9%

Home Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 1.574.6%

Home Over 0.571.1%

Away Over 2.549.9%

Away 3+ Goals49.9%

Home Exactly 135.8%

Home Over 1.535.3%

Home Exactly 028.7%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 222.3%

Away Exactly 118.4%

Home Over 2.513.0%

Home 3+ Goals13.0%

Away Exactly 06.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)67.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)52.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home52.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home32.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.9%

Away to win by 3+27.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.6%

Away to win by 120.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 19.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 24.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.9%

Home to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.6%

Away & Over 2.555.3%

Away & BTTS40.9%

Away & No BTTS26.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.3%

Draw & BTTS14.6%

Away & Under 2.512.4%

Home & Over 2.511.6%

Home & BTTS10.7%

Draw & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Home & No BTTS4.9%

Home & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.9%

HT Over 1.552.7%

HT Away Win52.0%

HT Under 1.547.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT/FT Away/Away46.3%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw30.8%

HT Both Teams Score30.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.3%

HT Home Win17.2%

HT Under 0.517.1%

HT/FT Home/Home8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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