Portugal · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Nacional

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Rio Ave 38.5% Draw 27.4% Nacional 34.0%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.66 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Rio Ave 1 wins, 2 draws, Nacional 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Rio Ave

L D L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Nacional

L L L D L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 4

Rio Ave 1wins ·2 draws ·Nacional 1wins

Rio Ave 0-4 NacionalJan 25, 2026

Rio Ave 1-1 NacionalAug 17, 2025

Rio Ave 3-3 NacionalMay 10, 2025

Rio Ave 2-1 NacionalDec 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rio Ave win38.5%

Draw27.4%

Nacional win34.0%

Over 1.5 goals68.9%

Over 2.5 goals42.9%

Over 3.5 goals22.0%

Both teams to score63.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

89.3%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Draw or Away (X2)67.2%

Both Halves Over 0.565.4%

Goal in Both Halves65.4%

Draw No Bet - Away57.7%

Home or Draw (1X)55.4%

Away Win44.6%

Draw No Bet - Home42.3%

Home Win32.7%

Draw22.6%

Exactly 1 Goal11.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.8%

Over 1.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals75.4%

Over 2.5 Goals64.9%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 3.5 Goals57.1%

1-3 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.9%

4+ Goals42.9%

2-3 Goals41.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.1%

1-2 Goals31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals24.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.7%

Under 1.5 Goals15.3%

Over 5.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.7%

Home Team to Score78.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.4%

Away Clean Sheet21.7%

Away Win to Nil18.1%

Home Clean Sheet16.3%

Home Win to Nil12.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.7%

Home Over 0.578.3%

Away Over 1.554.1%

Home Over 1.545.2%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 129.6%

Away Over 2.527.3%

Away 3+ Goals27.3%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 225.3%

Home Exactly 021.7%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Exactly 016.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home55.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.5%

Away to win by 120.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.4%

Away to win by 213.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.7%

Away to win by 3+10.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 29.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.9%

Home to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.8%

Away & Over 2.532.4%

Away & BTTS26.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.3%

Home & Over 2.523.2%

Home & BTTS20.0%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & No BTTS18.1%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

Home & No BTTS12.8%

Away & Under 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Home & Under 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.8%

HT Under 1.555.6%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.4%

HT Draw36.5%

HT Away Win35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Home Win28.0%

HT Both Teams Score27.8%

HT/FT Away/Away27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.2%

HT/FT Home/Home19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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