Portugal · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Kick-off 20:15 · Fri, Aug 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Rio Ave 10.0% Draw 14.7% Sporting CP 75.2%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 5 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Rio Ave

W L L D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Sporting CP

W W D W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 20:7 Scored/game 3.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Rio Ave 0wins ·1 draws ·Sporting CP 4wins

Rio Ave 1-4 Sporting CPMay 11, 2026

Rio Ave 0-4 Sporting CPDec 28, 2025

Rio Ave 0-3 Sporting CPJan 18, 2025

Rio Ave 1-3 Sporting CPAug 9, 2024

Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting CPFeb 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rio Ave win10.0%

Draw14.7%

Sporting CP win75.2%

Over 1.5 goals83.8%

Over 2.5 goals64.3%

Over 3.5 goals42.2%

Both teams to score63.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Home or Away (12)

89.4%

HT Over 0.5

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away93.2%

Draw or Away (X2)92.8%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Away Win83.3%

Both Halves Over 0.580.0%

Goal in Both Halves80.0%

Home or Draw (1X)15.6%

Draw9.5%

Draw No Bet - Home6.8%

Home Win6.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals82.1%

Under 5.5 Goals70.5%

Over 3.5 Goals65.5%

4+ Goals65.5%

Under 4.5 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals46.6%

2-4 Goals46.4%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 3.5 Goals34.5%

1-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals29.5%

2-3 Goals27.5%

Under 2.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.7%

Exactly 2 Goals10.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score61.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Away Clean Sheet37.3%

Away Win to Nil36.3%

Home Clean Sheet2.8%

Home Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.586.1%

Away Over 2.568.2%

Away 3+ Goals68.2%

Home Over 0.561.5%

Home Exactly 037.3%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Home Over 1.525.2%

Away Exactly 217.9%

Home Exactly 217.7%

Away Exactly 110.0%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Away Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)91.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)83.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home82.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home68.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away67.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)50.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home50.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)48.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away48.9%

Away to win by 3+48.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home31.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away30.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 218.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away16.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.5%

Away to win by 115.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw9.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away7.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.2%

Home to win by 14.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.4%

Home to win by 21.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.5%

Home to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.572.8%

BTTS & Over 2.556.1%

Away & BTTS47.0%

Away & No BTTS36.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Away & Under 2.510.5%

Draw & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

Home & Over 2.54.5%

Home & BTTS4.3%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & No BTTS1.7%

Home & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Away Win66.6%

HT/FT Away/Away63.5%

HT Over 1.560.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Under 1.539.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score28.4%

HT Draw23.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.0%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT Home Win9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.0%

HT/FT Home/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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