Russia · Premier League

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Oct 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Rodina Moskva 55.2% Draw 16.7% FC Orenburg 28.1%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to FC Orenburg: 4 points versus 6 across the last 5 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Rodina Moskva

L D W L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.4 Conceded/game 2.8

FC Orenburg

D D D L W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Rodina Moskva win55.2%

Draw16.7%

FC Orenburg win28.1%

Over 1.5 goals98.3%

Over 2.5 goals92.9%

Over 3.5 goals83.1%

Both teams to score88.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.6%

Away Team to Score

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.0%

Goal in Both Halves89.0%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Home or Draw (1X)71.0%

Draw No Bet - Home66.2%

Home Win55.0%

Draw or Away (X2)44.1%

Draw No Bet - Away33.8%

Away Win28.2%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals97.1%

Over 2.5 Goals92.1%

Over 3.5 Goals82.4%

4+ Goals82.4%

Over 4.5 Goals68.3%

Over 5.5 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 5.5 Goals48.2%

Under 4.5 Goals31.7%

2-4 Goals28.9%

3-4 Goals23.9%

Under 3.5 Goals17.6%

1-3 Goals16.4%

2-3 Goals14.7%

Exactly 3 Goals9.7%

Under 2.5 Goals7.9%

1-2 Goals6.7%

Exactly 2 Goals5.0%

Under 1.5 Goals2.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score90.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.4%

Home Clean Sheet8.3%

Home Win to Nil8.0%

Away Clean Sheet3.5%

Away Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Away Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 1.583.9%

Away Over 1.570.2%

Home Over 2.564.2%

Home 3+ Goals64.2%

Away Over 2.544.7%

Away 3+ Goals44.7%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 120.6%

Home Exactly 219.7%

Home Exactly 111.8%

Away Exactly 08.3%

Home Exactly 03.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.5%

Home to win by 3+23.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.5%

Away to win by 112.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.6%

Away to win by 3+7.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.585.2%

Home & Over 2.552.4%

Home & BTTS47.0%

Away & Over 2.526.5%

Away & BTTS24.9%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

Home & No BTTS8.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS3.2%

Draw & Under 2.52.7%

Home & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.7%

HT Over 1.573.7%

HT Both Teams Score52.3%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Home Win46.2%

HT/FT Home/Home37.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win28.1%

HT Under 1.526.3%

HT Draw25.7%

HT/FT Away/Away17.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT Under 0.57.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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