UEFA Europa League

Saburtalo vs Larne

Kick-off 17:00 · Tue, Aug 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Saburtalo 76.5% Draw 15.5% Larne 8.0%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 82%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Larne: 6 points versus 7 across the last 5 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

82%

Market agrees with this pick

Saburtalo

D D L D W

Form 1-3-1 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.4

Larne

D L L W W

Form 2-1-2 Goals 3:10 Scored/game 0.6 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 1

Saburtalo 0wins ·1 draws ·Larne 0wins

Saburtalo 0-0 LarneAug 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Saburtalo win76.5%

Draw15.5%

Larne win8.0%

Over 1.5 goals88.2%

Over 2.5 goals69.7%

Over 3.5 goals48.4%

Both teams to score54.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.0%

Draw No Bet - Home89.8%

Home or Away (12)85.9%

Home Win77.2%

Both Halves Over 0.569.1%

Goal in Both Halves69.1%

Draw or Away (X2)22.6%

Draw13.8%

Draw No Bet - Away10.2%

Exactly 1 Goal9.8%

Away Win8.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals87.2%

Under 5.5 Goals84.6%

Under 4.5 Goals70.9%

Over 2.5 Goals69.5%

2-4 Goals58.1%

Under 3.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

1-3 Goals48.8%

Over 3.5 Goals48.3%

4+ Goals48.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.0%

Under 2.5 Goals30.5%

Over 4.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals27.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals15.4%

Under 1.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.4%

Away Team to Score56.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.9%

Home Clean Sheet43.1%

Home Win to Nil40.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.3%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.4%

Home Over 1.576.0%

Away Over 0.556.7%

Home Over 2.551.9%

Home 3+ Goals51.9%

Away Exactly 043.1%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Away Over 1.520.5%

Home Exactly 117.5%

Away Exactly 215.2%

Home Exactly 06.3%

Away Over 2.55.3%

Away 3+ Goals5.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)35.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home35.6%

Home to win by 3+35.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 221.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 120.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.559.3%

BTTS & Over 2.546.8%

Home & No BTTS40.3%

Home & BTTS36.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.7%

Home & Under 2.517.9%

Draw & BTTS11.1%

Draw & Under 2.59.1%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Away & Over 2.55.5%

Away & BTTS5.1%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

Away & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.2%

HT Home Win58.5%

HT/FT Home/Home54.7%

HT Under 1.551.9%

HT Over 1.548.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw30.2%

HT Both Teams Score22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half21.6%

HT Under 0.519.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.2%

HT Away Win11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions