Turkey · Süper Lig

Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe

Kick-off 19:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Samsunspor 46.4% Draw 18.3% Fenerbahçe 35.3%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Fenerbahçe: 7 points versus 11 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Samsunspor

D W L W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.75

Fenerbahçe

W D L W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Samsunspor win46.4%

Draw18.3%

Fenerbahçe win35.3%

Over 1.5 goals97.6%

Over 2.5 goals90.6%

Over 3.5 goals78.8%

Both teams to score87.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.7%

Away Over 0.5

91.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.6%

Goal in Both Halves86.6%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home or Draw (1X)64.0%

Draw No Bet - Home56.7%

Draw or Away (X2)53.0%

Home Win46.6%

Draw No Bet - Away43.3%

Away Win35.6%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.2%

Over 3.5 Goals78.4%

4+ Goals78.4%

Over 4.5 Goals62.5%

Under 5.5 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals45.2%

Under 4.5 Goals37.5%

2-4 Goals34.2%

3-4 Goals27.7%

Under 3.5 Goals21.6%

1-3 Goals20.7%

2-3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals9.8%

1-2 Goals8.9%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.9%

Away Team to Score91.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.5%

Home Clean Sheet7.9%

Home Win to Nil7.4%

Away Clean Sheet5.6%

Away Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.9%

Away Over 0.591.7%

Home Over 1.577.8%

Away Over 1.571.7%

Home Over 2.554.5%

Home 3+ Goals54.5%

Away Over 2.546.4%

Away 3+ Goals46.4%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Exactly 120.0%

Home Exactly 116.2%

Away Exactly 07.9%

Home Exactly 05.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Home to win by 3+16.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.5%

Away to win by 3+10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.3%

Home & Over 2.543.5%

Home & BTTS39.2%

Away & Over 2.533.0%

Away & BTTS30.4%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Draw & Over 2.513.7%

Home & No BTTS7.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Away & No BTTS5.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.2%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.569.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score49.4%

HT Home Win40.0%

HT Away Win32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home30.5%

HT Under 1.530.1%

HT Draw27.3%

HT/FT Away/Away22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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