USA · Major League Soccer

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

Kick-off 03:30 · Thu, Sep 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

San Diego 74.7% Draw 12.6% San Jose Earthquakes 12.7%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to San Diego: 10 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

San Diego

L W W L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

San Jose Earthquakes

D D L L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

San Diego win74.7%

Draw12.6%

San Jose Earthquakes win12.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.0%

Over 2.5 goals92.0%

Over 3.5 goals81.4%

Both teams to score81.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.3%

Home Over 1.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.1%

Goal in Both Halves88.1%

Home or Away (12)86.4%

Home or Draw (1X)85.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.3%

Home Win73.6%

Draw or Away (X2)24.5%

Draw No Bet - Away14.7%

Away Win12.7%

Draw11.8%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals90.3%

Over 3.5 Goals79.8%

4+ Goals79.8%

Over 4.5 Goals65.0%

Under 5.5 Goals51.8%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

Over 5.5 Goals48.2%

Under 4.5 Goals35.0%

2-4 Goals30.8%

3-4 Goals25.3%

Under 3.5 Goals20.2%

1-3 Goals17.9%

2-3 Goals16.0%

Exactly 3 Goals10.5%

Under 2.5 Goals9.7%

1-2 Goals7.5%

Exactly 2 Goals5.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score81.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.3%

Home Clean Sheet16.7%

Home Win to Nil16.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.0%

Away Win to Nil1.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.2%

Away Over 0.581.4%

Home Over 2.572.9%

Home 3+ Goals72.9%

Away Over 1.551.8%

Away Exactly 129.6%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 2.525.6%

Away 3+ Goals25.6%

Away Exactly 016.7%

Home Exactly 215.4%

Home Exactly 17.9%

Home Exactly 02.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)57.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away57.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home40.8%

Home to win by 3+40.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 115.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 17.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.3%

Home & Over 2.569.7%

Home & BTTS57.2%

Home & No BTTS16.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

Away & Over 2.511.6%

Draw & BTTS11.4%

Away & BTTS11.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Home & Under 2.54.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.7%

BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Away & No BTTS1.7%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Over 1.572.3%

HT Home Win60.3%

HT/FT Home/Home54.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT Both Teams Score45.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.7%

HT Draw23.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT Away Win16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Away/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners71.2%

Under 11.5 Corners64.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners60.2%

Over 9.5 Corners59.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Under 10.5 Corners53.1%

Over 10.5 Corners46.9%

Home Most Corners44.8%

Away Most Corners42.7%

Under 9.5 Corners40.7%

Over 11.5 Corners35.1%

Under 8.5 Corners28.8%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.9%

Over 3.5 Cards69.2%

Under 5.5 Cards66.7%

Over 4.5 Cards50.7%

Under 4.5 Cards49.3%

Over 5.5 Cards33.3%

Under 3.5 Cards30.8%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.8%

Under 2.5 Cards15.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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