USA · Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City

Kick-off 03:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

San Jose Earthquakes 8.3% Draw 13.5% St. Louis City 78.2%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to St. Louis City: 4 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

San Jose Earthquakes

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 10:16 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.67

St. Louis City

D W W W W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

San Jose Earthquakes win8.3%

Draw13.5%

St. Louis City win78.2%

Over 1.5 goals93.1%

Over 2.5 goals79.4%

Over 3.5 goals61.0%

Both teams to score63.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.9%

Draw or Away (X2)

90.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.5%

Draw No Bet - Away89.8%

Home or Away (12)87.2%

Away Win78.3%

Both Halves Over 0.576.9%

Goal in Both Halves76.9%

Home or Draw (1X)21.1%

Draw12.2%

Draw No Bet - Home10.2%

Home Win8.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals79.0%

Under 5.5 Goals75.2%

Over 3.5 Goals60.7%

4+ Goals60.7%

Under 4.5 Goals58.7%

2-4 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals41.3%

Under 3.5 Goals39.3%

3-4 Goals37.7%

1-3 Goals37.3%

2-3 Goals31.2%

Over 5.5 Goals24.8%

Under 2.5 Goals21.0%

1-2 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals12.9%

Under 1.5 Goals8.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.3%

Home Team to Score64.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.9%

Away Clean Sheet34.7%

Away Win to Nil33.2%

Home Clean Sheet4.1%

Home Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.3%

Away Over 1.582.2%

Home Over 0.564.8%

Away Over 2.561.2%

Away 3+ Goals61.2%

Home Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 034.7%

Home Over 1.528.3%

Away Exactly 221.0%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Away Exactly 113.2%

Home Over 2.59.0%

Home 3+ Goals9.0%

Away Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)60.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away60.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home59.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)40.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away40.5%

Away to win by 3+40.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home39.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home21.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.8%

Away to win by 219.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.0%

Home to win by 16.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.2%

Home to win by 22.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.566.4%

BTTS & Over 2.557.3%

Away & BTTS45.1%

Away & No BTTS33.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.6%

Away & Under 2.511.9%

Draw & BTTS10.8%

Home & Over 2.56.6%

Draw & Under 2.56.3%

Home & BTTS6.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.9%

BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Home & No BTTS2.7%

Home & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.2%

HT Away Win61.1%

HT/FT Away/Away57.1%

HT Over 1.556.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.543.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score28.8%

HT Draw26.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.6%

HT Under 0.514.8%

HT Home Win12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Home/Home4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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