Portugal · Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Benfica

Kick-off 19:45 · Mon, Oct 26

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Santa Clara 17.4% Draw 23.0% Benfica 59.5%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Benfica: 14 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.3%

Exact-score model probability

Santa Clara

W D W W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

Benfica

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 15:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Santa Clara 0wins ·1 draws ·Benfica 4wins

Santa Clara 1-2 BenficaFeb 13, 2026

Santa Clara 1-1 BenficaSep 12, 2025

Santa Clara 0-1 BenficaFeb 15, 2025

Santa Clara 1-4 BenficaSep 14, 2024

Santa Clara 0-3 BenficaMay 27, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santa Clara win17.4%

Draw23.0%

Benfica win59.5%

Over 1.5 goals68.3%

Over 2.5 goals42.8%

Over 3.5 goals21.9%

Both teams to score59.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

89.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Draw or Away (X2)73.2%

Draw No Bet - Away64.8%

Both Halves Over 0.557.6%

Goal in Both Halves57.6%

Home or Draw (1X)50.8%

Away Win49.2%

Draw No Bet - Home35.2%

Home Win26.8%

Draw24.0%

Exactly 1 Goal16.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.3%

Under 5.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals83.7%

Over 1.5 Goals78.1%

Under 3.5 Goals67.6%

1-3 Goals61.9%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.7%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 2.5 Goals45.3%

1-2 Goals39.6%

3-4 Goals38.4%

Over 3.5 Goals32.4%

4+ Goals32.4%

Exactly 2 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals16.3%

Over 5.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 0 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.5%

Home Team to Score69.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.5%

Away Clean Sheet30.6%

Away Win to Nil25.0%

Home Clean Sheet18.5%

Home Win to Nil12.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.5%

Home Over 0.569.4%

Away Over 1.550.3%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.1%

Away Exactly 131.2%

Home Exactly 030.6%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.524.0%

Away 3+ Goals24.0%

Home Exactly 221.4%

Away Exactly 018.5%

Home Over 2.511.7%

Home 3+ Goals11.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away73.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home50.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)26.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.9%

Away to win by 122.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 215.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.3%

Away to win by 3+11.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home10.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.4%

Home to win by 27.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.4%

Home to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.0%

Away & Over 2.531.6%

Away & No BTTS25.0%

Away & BTTS24.2%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Away & Under 2.517.6%

Draw & Under 2.517.0%

Home & Over 2.516.1%

Home & BTTS13.9%

Home & No BTTS12.8%

BTTS & Under 2.511.3%

Home & Under 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.5%

HT Under 1.563.0%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT Draw39.8%

HT Away Win37.1%

HT Over 1.537.0%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Away/Away30.3%

HT Under 0.527.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.6%

HT Home Win23.1%

HT Both Teams Score22.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.1%

HT/FT Home/Home15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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