Portugal · Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Famalicao

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

35% confidence

Santa Clara 33.5% Draw 31.7% Famalicao 34.7%

Over 2.5 - 27% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santa Clara: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Santa Clara 2 wins, 0 draws, Famalicao 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.2%

Exact-score model probability

Santa Clara

W D L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Famalicao

L D W D D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Santa Clara 2wins ·0 draws ·Famalicao 3wins

Santa Clara 0-1 FamalicaoJan 18, 2026

Santa Clara 0-3 FamalicaoAug 10, 2025

Santa Clara 2-1 FamalicaoMay 10, 2025

Santa Clara 2-1 FamalicaoDec 30, 2024

Santa Clara 1-3 FamalicaoFeb 19, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santa Clara win33.5%

Draw31.7%

Famalicao win34.7%

Over 1.5 goals53.2%

Over 2.5 goals27.0%

Over 3.5 goals10.9%

Both teams to score58.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

86.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

85.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

85.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.3%

Draw or Away (X2)66.3%

Home or Draw (1X)59.5%

Draw No Bet - Away54.6%

Both Halves Over 0.554.5%

Goal in Both Halves54.5%

Draw No Bet - Home45.4%

Away Win40.5%

Home Win33.7%

Draw25.7%

Exactly 1 Goal18.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.3%

Over 0.5 Goals93.3%

Under 4.5 Goals86.2%

Over 1.5 Goals75.2%

Under 3.5 Goals71.3%

1-3 Goals64.6%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals49.3%

2-3 Goals46.5%

1-2 Goals42.6%

3-4 Goals37.0%

Over 3.5 Goals28.7%

4+ Goals28.7%

Under 1.5 Goals24.8%

Exactly 2 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals13.8%

Under 0.5 Goals6.7%

Exactly 0 Goals6.7%

Over 5.5 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score76.0%

Home Team to Score72.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.2%

Away Clean Sheet27.9%

Home Clean Sheet24.0%

Away Win to Nil21.2%

Home Win to Nil17.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.576.0%

Home Over 0.572.1%

Away Over 1.541.7%

Home Over 1.536.5%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Home Exactly 027.9%

Away Exactly 224.4%

Away Exactly 024.0%

Home Exactly 222.8%

Away Over 2.517.3%

Away 3+ Goals17.3%

Home Over 2.513.8%

Home 3+ Goals13.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.3%

Away to win by 121.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 212.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.6%

Home to win by 29.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.2%

Away to win by 3+7.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 3+5.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.542.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.1%

Away & Over 2.524.2%

Away & No BTTS21.2%

Home & Over 2.519.7%

Away & BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Draw & Under 2.518.9%

Home & No BTTS17.3%

Away & Under 2.516.4%

Home & BTTS16.4%

Home & Under 2.514.0%

BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.4%

HT Under 1.565.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.4%

HT Draw41.6%

HT Over 1.534.3%

HT Away Win31.3%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.529.6%

HT Home Win27.1%

Equal Goals Each Half25.5%

HT/FT Away/Away24.1%

HT Both Teams Score20.7%

HT/FT Home/Home19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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