Portugal · Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Nacional

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Aug 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)

44% confidence

Santa Clara 43.7% Draw 30.7% Nacional 25.6%

Over 2.5 - 30% BTTS - 37%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Santa Clara home strength

🤝 Bookmakers agree - bookies say 78%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Recent form trends

75%

Home Team to Score

Nacional away weakness

70%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Santa Clara has a significant home advantage with a pi-rating of 0.29. Nacional's away form is concerning, having scored only 0.6 goals per game on the road. The head-to-head history slightly favors Santa Clara, having won two of their last four meetings. With Santa Clara's recent form and home strength, they are likely to score.

💡

Top Tip

Backing Home or Draw is a safe bet given the data

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 74.4% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 25.6% on the only losing outcome.

Santa Clara home strength

Recent form leans to Nacional: 8 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Santa Clara 2 wins, 1 draws, Nacional 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home or Draw (1X)

1X · Home or Draw

74.4%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

25.6%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

78%

Market agrees with this pick

Santa Clara

L W D W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Nacional

W L L W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 4

Santa Clara 2wins ·1 draws ·Nacional 1wins

Santa Clara 2-0 NacionalMay 11, 2026

Santa Clara 3-3 NacionalJan 11, 2026

Santa Clara 1-0 NacionalMar 30, 2025

Santa Clara 0-2 NacionalNov 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santa Clara win43.7%

Draw30.7%

Nacional win25.6%

Over 1.5 goals56.5%

Over 2.5 goals29.7%

Over 3.5 goals12.6%

Both teams to score36.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.1%

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Draw No Bet - Home74.8%

Home Win56.1%

Both Halves Over 0.548.7%

Goal in Both Halves48.7%

Draw or Away (X2)43.9%

Draw No Bet - Away25.2%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal21.6%

Away Win18.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.4%

Over 0.5 Goals91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals90.3%

Under 3.5 Goals77.6%

Over 1.5 Goals69.4%

1-3 Goals68.6%

2-4 Goals59.7%

Under 2.5 Goals56.6%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals47.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals43.4%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Under 1.5 Goals30.6%

Exactly 2 Goals26.1%

Over 3.5 Goals22.4%

4+ Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Over 4.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals9.0%

Exactly 0 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score79.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.6%

Away Team to Score55.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.4%

Home Clean Sheet44.4%

Home Win to Nil35.4%

Away Clean Sheet20.2%

Away Win to Nil11.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.579.8%

Away Over 0.555.6%

Home Over 1.547.5%

Away Exactly 044.4%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Home Exactly 132.3%

Home Exactly 225.8%

Home Over 2.521.7%

Home 3+ Goals21.7%

Home Exactly 020.2%

Away Over 1.519.6%

Away Exactly 214.6%

Away Over 2.54.9%

Away 3+ Goals4.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.9%

Home to win by 125.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 217.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 113.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.8%

Home to win by 3+12.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.545.0%

Home & No BTTS35.4%

BTTS & Over 2.532.7%

Home & Over 2.530.3%

Home & Under 2.525.8%

Draw & Under 2.520.6%

Home & BTTS20.6%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Away & No BTTS11.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.6%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

Away & Over 2.58.7%

Away & BTTS7.7%

Draw & Over 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.4%

HT Over 0.566.2%

HT Draw43.3%

2nd Half More Goals42.2%

HT Home Win39.9%

HT/FT Home/Home34.7%

HT Under 0.533.8%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.6%

Equal Goals Each Half27.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.1%

HT Away Win16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.4%

HT Both Teams Score15.7%

HT/FT Away/Away10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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