Portugal · Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Rio Ave

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Santa Clara 51.0% Draw 27.3% Rio Ave 21.7%

Over 2.5 - 34% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 13.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santa Clara: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Santa Clara 1 wins, 2 draws, Rio Ave 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.5%

Exact-score model probability

Santa Clara

D W W D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Rio Ave

L W L L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Santa Clara 1wins ·2 draws ·Rio Ave 2wins

Santa Clara 0-2 Rio AveApr 11, 2026

Santa Clara 1-1 Rio AveNov 30, 2025

Santa Clara 1-1 Rio AveApr 18, 2025

Santa Clara 1-0 Rio AveDec 7, 2024

Santa Clara 0-2 Rio AveMar 17, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santa Clara win51.0%

Draw27.3%

Rio Ave win21.7%

Over 1.5 goals60.9%

Over 2.5 goals34.4%

Over 3.5 goals15.7%

Both teams to score48.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.0%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)71.0%

Home or Draw (1X)70.0%

Draw or Away (X2)59.0%

Draw No Bet - Home57.7%

Both Halves Over 0.543.9%

Goal in Both Halves43.9%

Draw No Bet - Away42.3%

Home Win41.0%

Away Win30.0%

Draw29.0%

Exactly 1 Goal24.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.6%

Under 4.5 Goals92.9%

Over 0.5 Goals88.8%

Under 3.5 Goals82.2%

1-3 Goals70.9%

Over 1.5 Goals64.3%

Under 2.5 Goals62.6%

2-4 Goals57.1%

1-2 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

2-3 Goals46.4%

Over 2.5 Goals37.4%

Under 1.5 Goals35.7%

3-4 Goals30.3%

Exactly 2 Goals26.8%

Exactly 3 Goals19.6%

Over 3.5 Goals17.8%

4+ Goals17.8%

Under 0.5 Goals11.2%

Exactly 0 Goals11.2%

Over 4.5 Goals7.1%

Over 5.5 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score70.0%

Away Team to Score62.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.9%

Home Clean Sheet37.3%

Away Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil26.1%

Away Win to Nil18.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.570.0%

Away Over 0.562.7%

Away Exactly 037.3%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 136.1%

Home Over 1.533.8%

Home Exactly 030.0%

Away Over 1.525.9%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Away Exactly 218.1%

Home Over 2.512.1%

Home 3+ Goals12.1%

Away Over 2.57.8%

Away 3+ Goals7.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)41.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.2%

Home to win by 123.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 119.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.8%

Home to win by 211.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.9%

Home to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.549.3%

BTTS & Over 2.530.6%

Home & No BTTS26.1%

Draw & Under 2.524.5%

Home & Under 2.521.6%

Home & Over 2.519.4%

Away & No BTTS18.8%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Away & Under 2.516.5%

Home & BTTS14.9%

Away & Over 2.513.6%

BTTS & Under 2.513.3%

Away & BTTS11.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.1%

HT Over 0.562.7%

HT Draw46.9%

2nd Half More Goals41.0%

HT Under 0.537.3%

1st Half More Goals30.0%

HT Home Win29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.0%

HT Over 1.525.9%

HT/FT Home/Home23.7%

HT Away Win23.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.6%

HT/FT Away/Away16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Both Teams Score15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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