Mexico · Liga MX

Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca

Kick-off 04:05 · Sun, Sep 27

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Santos Laguna 13.4% Draw 26.6% CF Pachuca 60.0%

Over 2.5 - 42% BTTS - 42%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 15.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to CF Pachuca: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.9%

Exact-score model probability

Santos Laguna

W W L D L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

CF Pachuca

D W W D D L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos Laguna win13.4%

Draw26.6%

CF Pachuca win60.0%

Over 1.5 goals69.5%

Over 2.5 goals41.8%

Over 3.5 goals21.2%

Both teams to score41.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.5%

Over 2.5 Cards

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.2%

Draw No Bet - Away80.6%

Home or Away (12)76.2%

Away Win61.4%

Both Halves Over 0.547.4%

Goal in Both Halves47.4%

Home or Draw (1X)38.6%

Draw23.8%

Exactly 1 Goal22.4%

Draw No Bet - Home19.4%

Home Win14.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.7%

Under 4.5 Goals91.0%

Over 0.5 Goals90.5%

Under 3.5 Goals78.8%

1-3 Goals69.3%

Over 1.5 Goals68.1%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 2.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals48.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals32.8%

Under 1.5 Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.3%

Over 3.5 Goals21.2%

4+ Goals21.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.7%

Under 0.5 Goals9.5%

Exactly 0 Goals9.5%

Over 4.5 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)59.9%

Away Clean Sheet50.7%

Home Team to Score49.3%

Away Win to Nil41.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)40.1%

Home Clean Sheet18.7%

Home Win to Nil9.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.3%

Home Exactly 050.7%

Away Over 1.549.9%

Home Over 0.549.3%

Home Exactly 134.4%

Away Exactly 131.4%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.523.6%

Away 3+ Goals23.6%

Away Exactly 018.7%

Home Over 1.514.9%

Home Exactly 211.7%

Home Over 2.53.2%

Home 3+ Goals3.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home38.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.8%

Away to win by 126.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 219.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.4%

Away to win by 3+15.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.9%

Home to win by 110.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.1%

Home to win by 23.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.4%

Away & No BTTS41.2%

Away & Over 2.532.2%

Away & Under 2.529.2%

BTTS & Over 2.529.2%

Draw & Under 2.520.3%

Away & BTTS20.2%

Draw & BTTS14.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Home & No BTTS9.2%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Over 2.56.2%

Home & BTTS5.6%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.571.4%

HT Over 0.565.3%

HT Draw43.1%

HT Away Win43.1%

2nd Half More Goals41.9%

HT/FT Away/Away38.6%

HT Under 0.534.7%

1st Half More Goals30.4%

HT Over 1.528.6%

Equal Goals Each Half27.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.2%

HT Both Teams Score13.9%

HT Home Win13.8%

HT/FT Home/Home7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners81.1%

Home Most Corners76.2%

Over 8.5 Corners75.3%

Over 9.5 Corners64.1%

Under 11.5 Corners59.9%

Over 10.5 Corners52.0%

Under 10.5 Corners48.0%

Over 11.5 Corners40.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners37.1%

Under 9.5 Corners35.9%

Under 8.5 Corners24.7%

Away Most Corners15.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards90.1%

Over 3.5 Cards77.9%

Over 4.5 Cards61.6%

Under 5.5 Cards55.8%

Over 5.5 Cards44.2%

Under 4.5 Cards38.4%

Under 3.5 Cards22.1%

Over 0.5 Red Cards21.3%

Under 2.5 Cards9.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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