Brazil · Serie A

Santos vs Atletico Paranaense

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Santos 30.3% Draw 27.5% Atletico Paranaense 42.2%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 7 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Santos

D L W L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Atletico Paranaense

D W W W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos win30.3%

Draw27.5%

Atletico Paranaense win42.2%

Over 1.5 goals80.1%

Over 2.5 goals55.5%

Over 3.5 goals33.1%

Both teams to score59.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

86.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.5%

Draw or Away (X2)68.2%

Both Halves Over 0.558.2%

Goal in Both Halves58.2%

Draw No Bet - Away57.9%

Home or Draw (1X)56.3%

Away Win43.7%

Draw No Bet - Home42.1%

Home Win31.8%

Draw24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal15.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.5%

Under 5.5 Goals92.5%

Under 4.5 Goals83.1%

Over 1.5 Goals78.6%

Under 3.5 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals55.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.5%

Under 2.5 Goals44.5%

1-2 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 3.5 Goals33.1%

4+ Goals33.1%

Exactly 2 Goals23.1%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.4%

Over 4.5 Goals16.9%

Over 5.5 Goals7.5%

Under 0.5 Goals5.5%

Exactly 0 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score79.5%

Home Team to Score73.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.7%

Away Clean Sheet26.7%

Away Win to Nil21.3%

Home Clean Sheet20.5%

Home Win to Nil15.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.579.5%

Home Over 0.573.3%

Away Over 1.547.0%

Home Over 1.538.0%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 132.5%

Home Exactly 026.7%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Over 2.521.3%

Away 3+ Goals21.3%

Away Exactly 020.5%

Home Over 2.514.7%

Home 3+ Goals14.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away68.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)31.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.5%

Away to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 213.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.1%

Home to win by 29.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.0%

Away to win by 3+9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.8%

Home to win by 3+4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.546.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.0%

Away & Over 2.528.1%

Away & BTTS22.4%

Away & No BTTS21.3%

Home & Over 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Draw & Under 2.516.9%

Home & BTTS16.8%

Away & Under 2.515.6%

Home & No BTTS15.0%

Home & Under 2.512.0%

BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.9%

HT Under 1.562.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Draw39.8%

HT Over 1.537.6%

HT Away Win33.8%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.1%

HT Home Win26.4%

HT/FT Away/Away26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT Both Teams Score22.8%

HT/FT Home/Home18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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