Brazil · Serie A

Santos vs Bahia

Full time · 0:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Santos 44.6% Draw 19.9% Bahia 35.5%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 83%

✓ Pick was correct (0:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santos: 16 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Santos

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Bahia

L W L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:9 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos win44.6%

Draw19.9%

Bahia win35.5%

Over 1.5 goals95.9%

Over 2.5 goals85.9%

Over 3.5 goals70.8%

Both teams to score83.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.9%

Home Over 0.5

91.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.582.3%

Goal in Both Halves82.3%

Home or Away (12)81.2%

Home or Draw (1X)63.7%

Draw No Bet - Home55.6%

Draw or Away (X2)54.7%

Home Win45.1%

Draw No Bet - Away44.4%

Away Win36.1%

Draw18.6%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals85.7%

Over 3.5 Goals70.7%

4+ Goals70.7%

Under 5.5 Goals65.0%

Over 4.5 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals47.5%

2-4 Goals42.6%

Over 5.5 Goals35.0%

3-4 Goals33.2%

Under 3.5 Goals29.3%

1-3 Goals28.3%

2-3 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals15.1%

Under 2.5 Goals14.3%

1-2 Goals13.3%

Exactly 2 Goals9.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.9%

Away Team to Score89.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.5%

Home Clean Sheet10.2%

Home Win to Nil9.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.9%

Away Win to Nil7.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.9%

Away Over 0.589.6%

Home Over 1.571.9%

Away Over 1.566.3%

Home Over 2.546.5%

Home 3+ Goals46.5%

Away Over 2.539.8%

Away 3+ Goals39.8%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 123.3%

Home Exactly 120.0%

Away Exactly 010.2%

Home Exactly 07.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home79.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.7%

Away to win by 115.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.6%

Home to win by 3+14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 210.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.9%

Away to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.8%

Home & Over 2.540.5%

Home & BTTS35.7%

Away & Over 2.532.1%

Away & BTTS29.0%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Draw & Over 2.513.1%

Home & No BTTS9.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Away & No BTTS7.1%

Draw & Under 2.55.5%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.6%

HT Over 1.563.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Both Teams Score43.7%

HT Home Win38.3%

HT Under 1.536.2%

HT Away Win32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw29.3%

HT/FT Home/Home29.0%

HT/FT Away/Away22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.8%

HT Under 0.511.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions