Brazil · Serie A

Santos vs Flamengo

Kick-off 23:30 · Thu, Oct 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Santos 16.8% Draw 18.3% Flamengo 64.9%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santos: 16 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Santos

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Flamengo

W W W W W L

Form 5-0-1 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos win16.8%

Draw18.3%

Flamengo win64.9%

Over 1.5 goals92.8%

Over 2.5 goals78.5%

Over 3.5 goals59.8%

Both teams to score71.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

85.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

85.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.1%

Draw or Away (X2)82.3%

Draw No Bet - Away78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.576.1%

Goal in Both Halves76.1%

Away Win65.6%

Home or Draw (1X)34.2%

Draw No Bet - Home21.1%

Home Win17.5%

Draw16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals78.4%

Under 5.5 Goals76.0%

Under 4.5 Goals59.8%

Over 3.5 Goals59.7%

4+ Goals59.7%

2-4 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals40.3%

Over 4.5 Goals40.2%

1-3 Goals38.6%

3-4 Goals38.1%

2-3 Goals32.1%

Over 5.5 Goals24.0%

Under 2.5 Goals21.6%

1-2 Goals19.9%

Exactly 3 Goals18.7%

Exactly 2 Goals13.4%

Under 1.5 Goals8.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.4%

Home Team to Score75.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.4%

Away Clean Sheet24.4%

Away Win to Nil22.8%

Home Clean Sheet6.3%

Home Win to Nil4.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.4%

Away Over 1.576.0%

Home Over 0.575.4%

Away Over 2.551.9%

Away 3+ Goals51.9%

Home Over 1.541.1%

Home Exactly 134.3%

Home Exactly 024.4%

Home Exactly 224.2%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Away Exactly 117.5%

Home Over 2.516.9%

Home 3+ Goals16.9%

Away Exactly 06.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away82.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)54.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home54.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)45.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away45.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)34.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home34.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.1%

Away to win by 3+27.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 120.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.4%

Away to win by 218.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)17.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away13.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.3%

Home to win by 110.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.8%

Home to win by 24.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.5%

Home to win by 3+2.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.6%

Away & Over 2.555.4%

Away & BTTS42.8%

Away & No BTTS22.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.4%

Draw & BTTS15.1%

Home & Over 2.513.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Home & BTTS12.7%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.6%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Home & No BTTS4.8%

Home & Under 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.7%

HT Over 1.556.0%

HT Away Win51.0%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT/FT Away/Away44.8%

HT Under 1.544.0%

HT Both Teams Score33.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT Home Win19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.5%

HT Under 0.515.3%

HT/FT Home/Home10.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.7%

HT/FT Home/Away4.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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